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[虚拟币交流]
尽管比特币再次回调 但其衍生品市场表现出较强韧性(转)
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10 月 21 日,比特币价格快速跌至 67,000 美元,抹去了过去三天的涨幅。部分分析师认为,此次回调主要是由于投资者对传统市场的担忧而减少比特币敞口产生的,然而从 BTC 衍生品的指标来看,期货市场并没有出现恐慌情绪。尽管投资者都在担心全球多个国家的经济正在放缓,并对ZF管理债务的能力有所担忧,但比特币期货市场的需求依然稳定。如果市场鲸鱼或套利平台出现利空情绪,期货市场的波动性或许会进一步增加。, Q4 \8 p$ y3 N* R- v G3 W
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比特币期货没有看跌迹象0 g: O$ q9 M. D9 w
比特币期货溢价率在 5% 至 10% 时表明市场处于中性状态,超过 10% 则表明看涨,这是由其较长的结算期决定的。10 月 21 日,即便比特币价格重新测试了 67,000 美元的支撑位,比特币年化基准利率依然保持在 9% 以上。但单个指标并不能完全说明市场情况,因此我们需要继续分析市场表现。, \( k0 e( l+ n
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T. Rowe Price 固定收益主管 Arif Husain 表示,受通胀预期上升和对ZF财政支出的担忧推动,美国10 年期国债收益率预计将在未来六个月内测试 5% 的门槛。当投资者出售债券时,收益率会上升,表明交易员正在寻求更高的回报。Husain 还指出,美国ZF计划向市场大量发行新债,而美联储正在努力缩减资产负债表以控制通胀并防止经济过热,美国债务利息成本每年已超过 1 万亿美元,这会促使央行考虑降低利率。
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5 M. Q. q$ ^; [ z2 l: U6 {比特币仍未脱离与股市的相关性
4 D9 F# C; f7 | B; v# ^在宏观经济不确定性的情况下,市场的 FUD 情绪对比特币价格产生了重大影响。虽然部分投资者认为比特币与传统市场关联性不大,偶尔会显出与标普 500 指数脱钩的迹象,但过去 40 天内,两者的相关性一直保持在 80% 以上,表明两者的相关性依然很强。这与 7 月中旬至 9 月中旬三个月期间两者的脱钩形成了鲜明对比。近期的数据表明,两个市场的变化都受到类似因素的推动,比特币与黄金之间关联性的不断增强正在进一步支撑这一趋势。% h# z) G& Z/ a5 d( A6 s# W/ h8 L
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比特币期权市场也支持衍生品的弹性。 25% 的 Delta 偏差指标表明,看跌(卖出)期权的交易价格低于同等看涨(买入)期权。 -7% 和 +7% 之间的偏差通常被认为是中性的,当前指标徘徊在中性到看涨市场的边界附近。 综上所述,衍生品交易者在比特币近期价格下跌期间并没有惊慌。如果预计会进一步下降,那么偏差将趋向于零或更高。总体而言,比特币衍生品继续表现出韧性。; p8 F4 }% Y! e, i/ g; ^1 o9 F; X% M
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比特币期权市场也表现出了很强的韧性。通常来说 25% 的 delta 偏差指标表明,看跌(卖出)期权的交易价格低于同等看涨(买入)期权。而 -7% 和 +7% 之间的偏差被认为市场是中性的,当前指标显示加密市场正处于中性到看涨的边缘。 总的来说,衍生品交易员在近期比特币盘整期间并没有恐慌,如果他们看跌比特币,delta 偏差将趋向于零或者更高。就目前来看,比特币期货市场还处于较强的弹性。
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再次回调 这是要怎么说了啊
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