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[虚拟币交流]
稳定币市场规模将达2万亿美元?小摩“泼冷水”:过于乐观!(转)
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财联社7月24日讯(编辑 卞纯)在近期推动美国国会批准稳定币法案的过程中,稳定币高达2万亿美元的市场规模预测被频繁提及。但摩根大通表示,这一预测“过于乐观”。3 Q. @) h+ \) Z. \' H- j1 n$ m0 V
* q4 {. R- I* R) ?- s 上个月,美国财长贝森特在参议院听证会上表示,如果有立法支持,到2028年,稳定币市值可能达到两万亿美元甚至更多。这几乎相当于目前所有稳定币2600亿美元市值的八倍。' }+ u/ Z8 m1 z) y& z& O
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“我们很难相信该市场在未来几年内能够大幅增长,因为支持稳定币的基础设施/生态系统远未完善,需要时间来建立,”以Teresa Ho为首的摩根大通策略师团队在周三给客户的一份报告中写道。“虽然采用率有望进一步增长,0 I* X" J1 l& f- u
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但速度可能比一些人预期的要慢。”1 L1 M: Q* d m6 i0 I
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稳定币因有可能被用于近乎即时的跨境支付和汇款,一直被吹捧为会对传统金融体系产生颠覆性影响。与波动性更强的加密货币不同,稳定币通常与法定货币挂钩,这可能使其更容易实现即时、全天候的支付结算。0 c% h0 d8 \4 `; |; j5 w! l3 k
, c% v% L3 M, f( i8 M6 I/ d2 r 不过,摩根大通策略师指出,尽管近期人们对这类资产的兴趣有所增加,但它们在全球资金流动中所占的比例仍不足1%,这表明这种数字资产要颠覆金融体系,仍有很长的路要走。
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摩根大通指出,鉴于目前的增长轨迹,他们预计稳定币市场更有可能增长两倍或三倍,这远低于其它预测。! H" p/ ]; e7 r: @9 ~5 b
' d) q3 _# o6 w 近年来,稳定币市场大幅增长,Tether Holdings SA的USDT和Circle Internet Group Inc.的USDC占据了60%以上的市场份额。! V; l$ P, g% s; h, b* \- h4 V
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摩根大通还表示:“我们怀疑,无论是散户还是机构投资者,都不会立即将支付型稳定币作为现金替代品,因为他们在管理作为流动性来源的现金方面较为保守。”# R: h0 N% a3 m h" V
) u1 w0 H# d% q# M/ `% a/ Q. X 随着上周美国国会通过稳定币法案并签署成法,围绕这项加密货币的监管担忧已基本消除。该法案要求稳定币受美元或美国ZF短期债券等流动资产支持,并要求发行商每月披露储备明细。
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