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[虚拟币交流]
8月重挫17%，“比特币持仓溢价”抹去大半，“数字币财库龙头”MSTR面临考验
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作为“比特币财库公司”模式的开创者，Strategy（原MicroStrategy，MSTR）正在经历一次前所未有的市场考验。8月份，& | Y$ y' j" p) I
Strategy股价累计下跌16.8%，4 j1 @ P5 B& j
抹去了公司长期相较于其比特币持仓所享有的大部分溢价。
9 W! e: j9 ~1 Z$ h3 E+ T {/ M市场的担忧主要来自Strategy融资策略的突然转变。公司原计划通过优先股募资购买比特币，但近期仅筹集了4700万美元，远低于预期。为弥补不足，Strategy重启了普通股发行计划，违背了此前限制稀释的承诺
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# c- T% J. ?7 v8 g1 W5 i这一战略反转不仅打击了投资者信心，也对整个比特币财库模式构成威胁。目前，仿效Strategy模式的企业财库总计持有超过1080亿美元比特币，占总供应量的4.7%。若Strategy的溢价优势崩塌，这一模式的可持续性将受到全面质疑。 W9 G. O% ?0 T, e+ f& ~
“财库模式”的破局0 k8 s" S6 ] H8 I, H' h( f C7 K
Strategy的商业逻辑一度被视为华尔街的创新案例：通过发行债券和股票融资购入比特币，再依赖市场给予的溢价不断滚动扩张。! z# L j3 p6 W4 i) I
这一模式在2020年开启后，迅速点燃了企业财务配置数字资产的潮流。截至目前，全球已有逾百家公司效仿，合计持有约1080亿美元的比特币，占流通总量的4.7%。
0 \: }, }+ G, k而如今，这套模式正在遭遇逆风。# o3 W, V I( o9 d/ \1 D h
7月底，Strategy承诺，除特殊情况外，不会在比特币持仓倍数（mNAV）倍数低于2.5的情况下发行股票。但仅两周后，这一指导方针就被放宽，8月25日，公司又发行了近90万股新股。8 u7 p$ j/ m3 T' Z6 w# n0 h
该“食言”举动彻底引发了投资者的信任危机，进一步压低了溢价。
. d3 H8 |4 b# k# w! k# q9 q9 IStrategy的股价已不再与其软件业务相关，而是锚定于mNAV。过去，这一倍数曾因市场波动在危机与牛市间反复起伏，例如Terra-Luna暴雷期间大幅收缩，而特朗普连任后曾回升至3.4倍。如今，mNAV已降至1.57倍，且下跌发生在比特币依然强势的行情中，显示市场对“财库模式”本身的信心正在动摇。
, h3 j' A5 M" [+ Z% Q% k分析人士指出，当公司选择在mNAV低位继续增发股份时，可能触发“负向飞轮”：股价下跌削弱购币能力，进一步侵蚀市场信心，导致溢价加速压缩。
: K/ [$ T& \; s" u8 R, e: b据Wintermute场外交易台首席分析师Jake Ostrovskis表示：“溢价下降是对竞争和获取数字资产敞口的替代方式的自然反应。此外，收回关于在2.5倍mNAV以下不发行股票的指导，迫使市场短期重新评估公司战略。”
Y7 D, I# y, w, t2 K# |9 r! p比特币现货ETF崛起，多元资产分流，比特币财库企业普遍承压6 f( ]1 {6 r! v1 C' _
不仅是Strategy，比特币财库企业普遍面临压力。
6 ~" f$ B) G# m# T. O8 z, I2 F根据Capriole Investments数据，近三分之一将比特币纳入资产负债表的上市公司，其股票交易价格现已低于这些储备的价值。小型企业尤为脆弱：流动性限制使股票发行更加痛苦，而对可转换债券的依赖带来利息负担和到期风险。: X# F9 o# X8 a& h( S
Capriole创始人Charles Edwards表示：
& E0 k3 m9 L; p2 j' a; d! E“如果比特币下跌50%会发生什么？对财库公司的热情将减弱，mNAV将压缩，数百家公司将开始质疑其财库策略。”3 a4 y3 Y$ {% u/ d* o I# A
另一挑战来自现货比特币ETF的兴起。最初，Strategy们和现货ETF都受益于美国大选后的比特币价格反弹，但由于基金提供比特币敞口，而没有与公司治理、杠杆或稀释相关的风险，比特币财库企业的相对优势越来越弱。
7 ?) ?# Z0 x# {8 R! W0 [同时，关注点正在转向以太币和索拉纳等其他数字资产，一些人认为这些资产更适合去中心化金融。仅以以太币为重点的财库就已投入超过190亿美元。# ?% P8 N: U( W, F/ a2 }
尽管比特币本身已从本月早些时候创下的高点回落，但仍受到机构配置的支撑。许多较新的财库公司在10万美元以上买入，如果市场转向，缺乏维持它们的基础业务。
/ }+ K7 }9 G" c- t8 s3 z0 G2 t美国大学法学教授Hilary Allen指出：“除了情绪之外，比特币背后什么都没有。”
& T" ^7 w# S T$ V( Q: ~本文来自华尔街见闻，欢迎下载APP查看更多
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