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[lastpost] => 2761786 CoinShares：上周数字资产投资产品资金流入24.8亿美元（转） 1756736007 rainwang
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不是梗图，是数据在说话。我们判断一轮早期山寨季正在展开，理由很简单：
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市场结构： TOTAL3（剔除 BTC/ETH 的山寨总市值）相对两大主流币企稳；即便没有 BTC/ETH 的放量突破，市场宽度也在扩散。. |6 K6 s$ i2 t3 T1 r- r$ _2 m+ b
领涨方向： SOL/ETH 上行、资金费率温和、强平不多——真买盘，不是挤空。* o6 a+ O9 }* [7 R# S: A6 j
催化因素： 美国ZF推进区块链应用，商务部将 GDP、PCE 等官方数据上链（经 Chainlink/Pyth），平台币阶段性重估等基本面把“场外”资金带回场内。% D2 Z, X/ M. A9 q
ETF 资金面： ETF 仍净流入但明显降温；ETH 相关 DAT（币股）的市值/净值比（m/NAV）偏低 → 增发吸引力下降，可能给山寨留出更多空间。, [2 N7 W& c4 W* G4 p
信号 1｜市场结构与 TOTAL3 的韧性
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过去 5 天的走势，更像山寨季开端而不是“只涨主流”的轮动。TOTAL3 在 BTC、ETH 震荡时未创新低；衍生品侧保持有序：资金费率接近中性、被动平仓有限——指向现货主导的真实需求。对交易员而言，重点很明确：不等 BTC/ETH 创新高，广度也能扩散；在配对交易里挑选山寨，性价比更高。" C; K, o0 {% [* h" W& N
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信号 2｜ SOL跑赢ETH，开始轮动
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SOL/ETH 上行同时资金费率平稳、没有明显挤空痕迹，说明是主动配置的真实买盘。历史上，这常常领先于高流动中盘和功能赛道的配对轮动；同时提供更低 β的表达：做多 SOL / 做空 ETH。: c' }" q+ [: G0 V4 ^3 {5 k! x
8 a, z- Q+ C7 E' X信号 3｜主流币“稳，但不带节奏”% G4 G* D! s- l& Y9 W+ L4 r
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( W, V$ P" S2 t2 t来源：https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz/5 H& l" X% ^7 f4 I+ h2 s
主流币的基本面依旧正面，但 ETH、BTC 的边际动能在下降：回调有承接、上攻缺追涨，难以直接推高新高。, h! P/ p8 m. N/ s- L7 e
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以 以太坊币股 为例，m/NAV 多在 1.0–1.1×，跑输现货 ETH，难以支撑继续“增发+被动现货买入”的链条。我们的判断是：主流抄底盘足、追高盘弱，边际风险下沉到有事件催化的山寨更合理。
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信号 4｜可落地的区块链应用在推进
- ^) m# N$ s4 U8 T; F" r政策与基础设施两端都有硬催化：美国商务部宣布将实际 GDP、PCE 等官方系列上链（经 Chainlink、Pyth，覆盖 Arbitrum、Avalanche、Base 等），权威且可机读的数据为数据驱动型 DeFi、代币化风控、事件市场打开新场景。, q* E n+ o+ _. I' u1 O2 y1 R4 d) M
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同时，区块链为底层的应用也获得了主流机构的认可和采用，Numerai（以 $NMR 激励、AI 驱动的对冲基金）获 摩根大通资管 5 亿美元策略容量承诺。
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& M! T' [4 G. j) m6 i平台币阶段性走强：OKB 受代币模型调整提振，CRO 因特朗普家族基金投资等相关消息面而受关注。以上进展都不依赖 BTC/ETH 创新高——这正是山寨季早期的典型特征。
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3 c Z! k: }' k0 q4 h3 v3 f( ~: ^结论｜交易框架/ ]& ?4 I( \' K, ^& z* o
当前画面：主流有序、ETF 净流入降温、DAT 溢价偏薄、硬催化把资金往下游带。/ D" R$ k' E$ b9 `
. j Q3 i5 O* X1 C; \0 ]策略上继续坚持配对优先、新闻优先：! d8 s' U* R/ _$ s
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核心仓位： 多 SOL / 空 ETH；关注新币上涨) X4 _5 U* q' O, m! j0 j0 J
卫星仓位： 以事件催化为锚，回调分批配置新闻驱动的山寨；直到资金流、资金费率或关键代理指标明确提示风格切换为止。8 Z: i3 B9 k. n: _5 L0 t
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当前离线
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当前离线
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总在线: 19200 小时
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