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[lastpost] => 2750392 比特币交易员注意！—为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%（转） 1752889314 22301
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的
. d( L) q& l" w' G4 r) ^比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
0 u! I! s8 k% i! E短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。: t2 n" v% m! O# N4 Y" N
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比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内
, K$ n1 n6 _0 t/ ?实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。
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0 I( H- Q5 ?( S# @然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。# Y# q+ p; D1 M5 W$ z0 v0 M7 ^
1 \$ |, F2 ]# LSTH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。
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4 F4 w. q# x- s! d! u1 @& G尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。$ \2 B. U5 H$ K3 \' W+ Q
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这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
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比特币价格结构和风险区域- v* K1 k7 T8 U* J! E( U0 }0 |
发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。- Q1 D% B2 V1 M) `1 o
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这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。
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0 d R' |: c2 M' B. p9 W布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。. H) T! s8 C8 T
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但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。
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* {2 n% Z1 f# i% m/ E这对比特币趋势意味着什么$ ^. {% l7 g- r4 R' W
未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。
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如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。" }7 u; j; D. n. |; Q+ ?# {: h
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总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。
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