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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗?(转)
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称,美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
# {& j* y. F) g; f; q- [: y加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。" Z! y$ z) @9 d% {9 J( X ~
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻,加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。' {9 `: X3 q9 Z( l
" J! w& L- x+ ~- F根据 估计,预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。" { N5 z( B( W0 l& A
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但是,对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施,债务可能会失控。9 n4 N3 ~3 E$ v( v' n
0 I) r5 s& d* L+ s' ~6 N: l: S他警告说,未来10年内,普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。1 _0 x& k: H4 |3 |2 p1 A
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可能的后果是什么?增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值,并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。! L9 |# U" O8 H" t
" d- Q: F) W2 Q: B& }他表示,
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“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好,而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
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BTC 的完美风暴?. `& x. x6 x0 D- H! g5 [
加密货币领袖声称,这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。1 }& Q: P/ |, H4 w
2 b% y% L; r# Y作为一种固定供应的数字资产,与美元等传统货币相比,它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。
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) Y5 i6 z! }8 a" e# P) G2 z这些货币供应量无限,由各国央行随意印制。简而言之,BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。
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Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。1 F4 b6 q( a4 p/ V7 ^1 o) y
; ~' L) W% N' ?6 wReal Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点,添加在这种贬值情况下,只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。+ J; D. ]* F& s; d$ [6 h. a7 c
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“在长期牛市中,贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异:科技和加密货币。”
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- S' G$ Z* N- U/ m7 m0 U尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比,他更倾向于黄金。
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他表示,追踪黄金价格走势更容易,尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难,因此得出结论,比特币仍然是一种投机行为。: s/ X# W: V! _
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然而,对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说,BTC 是数字黄金。事实上,他警告今年 4 月,如果财政债务得不到管理,人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。$ _" Z( [# k7 t1 G8 y" |
1 O- [( S+ w# u* X: k* r即便如此,财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。
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6 v7 a! `# W8 I! B! I0 o9 G“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度,这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”
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与此同时,Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。2 a' O; w9 {6 ]
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结果,美国财政部可能会补充(从市场借钱)其主要现金账户或TGA(国库普通账户),并挤压流动性,拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。
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' C# e; T) P% O% L; ]8 t“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性,对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”
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