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[lastpost] => 2750392 比特币交易员注意!—为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%(转) 1752888464 jackcool1011
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比特币在特朗普关税威胁下遭遇重挫,曾经的"特朗普交易"热点正经历严峻考验。
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28日,比特币单日暴跌高达7.3%,跌至自去年11月以来的最低点,较历史高点下跌 25%。整个2月,比特币已下跌超过20%。若这一跌势持续到月底,将创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。
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% f x* F$ R+ `" @/ d# y此次暴跌并非比特币独自承受,以太坊、Polkadot和XRP等其他主要加密货币同日均下跌超过7%,显示出加密市场的普遍恐慌情绪。BTC Markets Pty Ltd的首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示:: A9 b; R) b; g! |; q% n7 _
% P9 X% P' P7 K2 k, l' p"上一次我们看到类似情绪还是在2022年的'加密寒冬'期间。这次暴跌可以视为对特朗普关税和地缘ZZ不确定性等宏观忧虑的直接反应。"! [) v( _. Y2 v6 d
: J* A- B* k# t8 I( e( o& X"特朗普交易"幻灭:加密资产从狂欢到挫折
2 B! `2 R0 P% b2 H6 h5 [据央视新闻,特朗普于2月27日宣布,从3月4日起将对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税。这一消息打击了市场此前对特朗普可能改变贸易政策路线的期望。
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贸易紧张局势导致28日全球市场普遍出现避险情绪,亚洲股市几乎全线下跌,欧洲期货也出现下滑。但作为对风险情绪变化极为敏感的资产,加密货币成为受打击最严重的投资品类之一。$ I8 F; {% t: c: }8 j* s( t$ ?. a5 N- `3 {
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比特币的暴跌凸显了市场情绪的急剧转变。曾经,买入比特币是最受欢迎的"特朗普交易"之一,投资者期望特朗普亲加密货币的政策立场将推动市场大幅上涨。加密托管公司Bitgo Inc亚太地区场外交易总监Stefan von Haenisch表示:' H4 `' d7 l% { U1 ~- b: b0 I
& p- O7 f% G9 A5 m8 C- O+ Z2 d' n: z"考虑到当前宏观环境,我们现在的处境并不令人意外。"
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, q8 Z3 u" h5 K' }4 c r! n7 u" q他补充说,交易员仍在等待特朗普为该行业提出具体措施,包括比特币储备计划。
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市场前景:技术支撑与投资者撤资7 @ [: _3 f& _! W3 g
投资者现在被迫思考世界上最大的加密货币可能会跌至何处。加密平台YouHodler的市场主管Ruslan Lienkha通过技术分析指出,比特币在70000美元附近有支撑位,但他表示投资者不应假设比特币崩盘会那么严重。Lienkha指出:' i. G& l* H# A: J( x4 ?
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"只有在股票市场负面情绪主导的情况下,我们才会看到这一价位。"
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* s2 \4 v: ^2 @& Y负面情绪本周也冲击了现货美国比特币ETF,周二投资者净流出超过10亿美元,创下这些产品自去年推出以来的最大单日流出。
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尽管市场遭遇挫折,特朗普已经做出一些令加密货币支持者欣喜的改变,包括在关键职位安排加密货币支持者。此前在前任主席Gary Gensler领导下对加密行业进行多年打击的美国证券交易委员会,近几周来已关闭了对几家加密机构的调查。
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6 ?' p, L* A: ^( _5 o$ `( F特朗普曾表示,他希望将美国打造成"地球的加密货币之都和世界比特币超级大国"。然而,市场目前的表现表明,实现这一愿景可能比预期更具挑战性。
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根据彭博社策略师Mark Cudmore的观点,真正的恐慌可能还未到来。他警告说:* B6 n* ^" W9 B8 e o" x
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"比特币未来总会经历另一次70%以上的崩盘,这是其固有特性。72000-74000美元区间可能是触发下一个加密寒冬的技术临界点。"
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