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分析公司 Glassnode 在一份新报告中发现，比特币 [BTC]市场仍然高度波动。受到更广泛金融市场低迷的严重影响，国王币在短期内看起来不确定。 相比之下，市场保持一致，并在长期内遵循良好发展的趋势。
5 o' X2 C1 `4 z3 u8 {5 i在评估中，Glassnode 考虑了当整个市场在熊市中航行时，不同的 BTC 持有者群体的行为有多么不同。链上情报公司还考虑了HODLer和短期持有者的用户行为差异。 N; o3 k; T6 O2 b- C
该报告还研究了不同的钱包大小，以了解这些类别的持有者在面对不确定性时的反应。 5 m6 F( i& J- I2 v
比特币累积趋势分数4 [9 w, s; E8 R: v* n. t0 M
根据 Glassnode 的说法，过去 12 个月分为四个不同的阶段。首先，在 2021 年 11 月的历史新高之后，有一段时间的 BTC 积累。随后是由“缓慢但持续的价格暴跌”引起的代币分配时期。 + Q% ~6 t n. X* g
尽管LUNA崩盘导致市场严重下跌，但投资者还是开始增持BTC。在这段积累之后，我们目前处于的最后一个阶段需要投资者通过代币分配和获利了结寻求退出流动性。 % K# L4 }' |7 n9 Y$ N
此外，根据数据，当前阶段由 10,000 多个 BTC（鲸鱼）的持有者构成，他们“积极”分配代币，“利用全球市场不确定性中存在的任何退出流动性”。 $ {- a2 V( g6 a
查看鲸鱼交易所净头寸变化指标证实了这一点。
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8 d! K2 y& o* M! T) M但投资者正在增持! n1 f: A0 z% a+ t) K" o6 W
在分析 BTC 持有者的长期行为后，Glassnode 考虑了活跃度指标。根据Glassnode Academy的说法，该指标提供了对宏观 HODLing 行为变化的洞察。此外，还确定了长期持有者积累或支出趋势。
( M$ A6 P3 F5 m5 R+ O h6 }当指标下降时，意味着很大一部分代币供应处于休眠状态，HODLers 继续 HODL。当它处于上升趋势时，这意味着长期持有者已经开始花费他们的旧币。
8 ~; p/ ^ R6 _+ N根据 Glassnode，
0 d0 Q# r% b; C7 _" x' A/ C“活跃度目前处于强劲的下降趋势中，并令人信服地跌破了 2018 年后熊市的三重峰值。这一事件表明，Coin Days 被供应积累的速度远快于它们被销毁的速度，并且与 HODLing 主导政权相吻合。”
9 H4 l6 |4 I2 H3 a, Y( N9 Q
% P" K7 t' Y. Z: c6 B此外，HODLer 净持仓变化显示，自 2020 年 11 月以来，BTC 宏观 HODLing 行为目前处于多年高位，每月约 70,000 BTC。 % s# E0 w; b% l! ~
根据 Glassnode 的说法，这与长期看涨的信念相一致，尽管目前国王币的价格下跌。 4 m3 y1 M0 r( R1 Y. ]' y3 |# d
5 ]; m0 Y- W( a6 a2 c, K
考虑到指标的立场，从长远来看，BTC HODLers 仍然“坚定他们的信念”。近期比特币价格下跌主要受短线持有者推动。 # j. ~: ^: S8 x4 }1 i
来源：金色财经 |
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