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[lastpost] => 2769327 Pi币价格预测：价格自历史高点暴跌91%——但神秘巨鲸为何仍在买入？-转 1758962429 rainwang
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。' I$ V P* W* u j
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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) ]% w( p9 G) s4 A6 Z衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”- B/ n6 f9 p) R! J! i" Z7 X2 L* h
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。( _- b4 H# O2 {
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益/ a5 j3 A3 @& Y
3 s/ E# f8 R7 x# o率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。5 i, w2 k0 ?$ z, F8 W
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国; m! N* W7 X: t) j" q+ r
6 o" I( o) a N5 P" v7 A: a长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。, Q0 @6 T; m& s. ]4 T+ |: D. u
( @, {' Z: y! `9 ~" Q# L8 W历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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7 m. N( W* R8 X+ e- ]; e3 q% q特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史* U& ?% f1 m' O& y7 Q
# a/ e# b& e M7 z u' ~' q( O& s6 {标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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& ]" v3 w3 P6 r' r* j! u" }周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。. p b, v8 E h, J& D- g
7 B. }. _" |, j4 Q2 Z" U% F周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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* g8 a9 N+ w" L1 p X/ G周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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7 G# d: X1 ?7 B" W0 Y# F收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，3 S, b3 M) u; v+ l4 ^! U) V
" j( a: @7 L2 w$ S1 v9 W# e! R是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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" l" @1 Y) s7 d3 G根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去5 D8 N8 B, ^7 ~- ~7 h1 t( i, N% J
. u( \/ N8 ]4 P |年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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1 H$ P7 x* H( V, }1 u% mRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"0 f5 N. |! t0 p1 |( n
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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