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为什么美联储加息了75个基点、市场开始了反弹?
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在美联储宣布加息之后,加密市场出现了积极的反弹,这与许多人的预期完全相反。美联储最近宣布将利率提高 75 个基点以应对飙升的通胀。触及9.1%的通货膨胀被认为是过去 40 年来的最高水平。
美联储加息的决定是通胀飙升和可能即将到来的衰退的后续行动。
然而,全球加密市场在宣布后表现出积极的结果。公告发布后,比特币、以太坊和整个加密货币市场均获得了个位数和两位数的涨幅。
反弹的可能原因是什么?
可以从不同的角度看待当前的市场反弹。此前,加密市场对美联储的加息和其他措施有不同的反应。在做出这样的决定之后,比特币和加密市场自3月以来已经暴跌。
美联储加息预期为100点,而市场对加息的预期为75点。从一个角度来看,加密货币市场普遍遵循宏观趋势,市场预期得到满足,加密货币市场进入积极反弹。如果利率上调 100 个点,市场可能会出现下跌暴跌并出现亏损。
由于加密货币市场完全颠覆了交易者的意识形态,其他交易者认为,由于美联储将利率提高了 75 个百分点,由于即将发生的合并,加密货币可以描绘出一个积极的反弹,以太坊的表现优于其他交易者。这一预测与市场目前的表现一致,因为比特币和以太坊在消息传出后分别上涨了 8.73% 和 16.67%。正如许多人所预期的那样,以太坊以两位数的涨幅超过了比特币。
逢低买入的交易者获得了合理的收益。但是,尽管有所有的理论和猜测,反弹有可能是一个短暂的牛市陷阱。由于加密货币市场也有翻转立场的普遍行为,因此存在回调空间,未来24-48小时市场翻转的机会也是可能的。
美联储的任何进一步加息都会使其进入积极限制区。更令人担忧的是,鲍威尔提到另一次异常大幅度的加息可能是 9 月 FOMC 下次会议的适当措施。
如果美联储不积极进行过度激进的量化紧缩,实际收益率将开始下降。当这种情况发生时,价值密集型和风险驱动的资产类别,例如加密货币,表现会更好。
尽管鲍威尔的讲话鼓励了加密货币反弹,但缺乏任何前瞻性指导是一个令人担忧的方面。鲍威尔透露,下一个决策将由数据驱动,而不是自动鹰派。 然而,如果宣布任何更不寻常的大幅加息,市场可能会变得非常动荡。
今天的分享就到这里,后期会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿资询和项目点评,欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源:金色财经 |
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