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这波熊市到底了没？加密基金分析师：我不认为,甚至还差得远呢
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一家大型加密基金的分析师jbjbjb 透过Nansen 链上数据及总经趋势，分析当前加密市场为何还有突破新低的可能
我不认为熊市已经见底了
透过以下几点原因，分享其认为市场还有可能进一步下跌的原因
1.链上活动
首先，也是最重要的一点，jbjbjb 认为3AC 所引发的一连串破产事件尚未落幕，虽然已经在进行清算流程，但他们所持有且待清算的部位尚未于市场上倒货，BTC、ETH 等资产最终都将被抛售以赔偿债权人
以下是jbjbjb 整理出的部分3AC 钱包地址，钱包中皆包含了数千颗的ETH 及其他加密资产
更别说3AC 的Starry Night NFT 钱包，总价值约为12,500 ETH，且均在今年6 月被转出，同样有面临大量清算的可能
因此，当前最好静待司法程序进行，等3AC 的加密货币、股票及NFT 开始于市场出售后，势必会引发加密生态更广泛的一波抛售潮
Smart Money
透过Nansen 的Smart Money 功能， 整理了一系列的机构钱包清单
经过观察后，发现这些Smart Money 在当前市场并无太多的操作，且 ETH 占比非常低，并将大部分资金分配给USDC、USDT 及DAI 等稳定资产
日本央行及日元
日元价格正处于自1999 年以来的最低点，而jbjbjb 认为日本央行将可能会成为全球经济萧条蔓延的主因
日本央行于2001 年开始实施QE 作为经济的补救措施，但当前日本央行已经持有日本债券市场50.2% 的债券，以及1 兆美元美国国债
若想要阻止日元的持续下跌，日本必须停止YCC (殖利率曲线控制) 来避免通货膨胀。不过鉴于其一直以来的银行业务政策，日本央行似乎没有要停止的迹象。要重回通货紧缩的循环并不容易
总体经济面
根据当前的联准会基金期货数据，联准会有85% 的机率升息100 个基点(考量到6 月CPI 年增9.1%，创40 年新高)，联邦准备银行总裁James Bullard 也表明目标年利率为3.75%-4%
那么当美国QE 变得更为剧烈，但日本开始抛售其手中1 兆美元美国国债时会发生什么事？
信贷市场的流动性将会归零，与现有债务相比，买家更喜欢新发行的债券。这意味者债券价格将会大幅下跌，殖利率攀升，已转手现有的债券
但如果当联准会都不买了，谁会来接手这些债券？较有可能为避险基金，不过当前已经处于强力的紧缩循环，避险基金倾向持有更多现金并降低曝险
如果上述情形如实发生，利率将持续走高
TVL 大幅下滑
现在所有dapp 的TVL 仅剩过去的一小部分。没有人愿意出借代币，或参与Defi 生态。一个在熊市中非常明显的市场情绪表现
若查看借贷协议Liquity 的TVL，已从50 亿美元下滑至5.5 亿美元。若使用得当，贷款及杠杆对市场非常重要，他们在支撑链上活动及刺激买气上是不可或缺的
市场何时反转？
基于上述几点原因， 认为市场尚未见底，甚至还很遥远。其认为在人们再次看涨前，需先回答以下问题：
1.投资者的钱从哪里来？
2.加密市场经历崩跌不过数周，消费者信心如何迅速反转？
3.在经济紧缩周期的高峰期中，Smart Money 愿意从新进场冒险吗？
不过其也表示，当房地产的价格开始大幅缩水，那就是底部要到的时候了 来源：金色财经 |
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