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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在美联储新一轮降息中达到76849美元：未来预测？（转）
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比特币[BTC]11月7日创下76849美元的历史新高。当BTC；2021年达到6.9万美元的历史最高点，不久后美联储开始加息。0 y L$ H3 }% J; ?; }9 _
4 V1 |- |2 D: G2 t: H当时的说法是，市场流动性过多，通货膨胀正在加剧。
7 o+ y) D- s7 k+ W. G' J! b. v. u( B7 z) B" a3 Z" i
快进到2024年下半年，美联储正在转向降息。美国监管机构刚刚宣布再次降息25个基点。但为什么这很重要？3 a+ h- U3 w; ~ o( T- |
5 m% r" F- P" h; f5 t较低的利率将继续改善市场的流动性状况，这一结果在上次降息后已经很明显。
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2 d$ m3 {! n# [最新的降息公告意味着比特币可能因此有更平稳的时间实现更大的上涨。& e# _- L; G0 |/ S$ l
; n# d- U# H- A. T& M
虽然新的降息可能会提振投资者信心，但杠杆多头面临清算风险。根据CryptoQuant的数据，比特币的未平仓合约和估计杠杆率最近一直徘徊在年初至今的最高水平。
# X1 P/ Y* s9 V! c4 C
0 s1 m, B9 {' h+ K高杠杆表明看涨预期仍然很高。然而，这也突显了如果价格回落，长期清算的风险。+ m4 I7 x! h7 C6 N# v8 Q% T7 ^
+ K+ m3 b0 ^& b$ J* r比特币是否因获利回吐而面临抛售压力？
% X- z5 P% {- X3 U( e7 u0 b杠杆多头支撑的当前形势可能为鲸鱼进入市场提供机会。担心价格上涨会错过机会的交易员即将到来的购买势头将为卖家提供退出流动性。
: U' a- Z( i3 V/ m- b* v' D5 d/ }$ c0 S; X' B4 Z, |
比特币的大量持有者流入表明，流入鲸鱼地址的比特币数量大幅减速。这一数字从11月4日的43870 BTC下降到11月7日的1160 BTC。6 F8 |! }+ |" [! ~7 k! P
- T" B [" x+ S相比之下，截至11月6日，大型持有者流出量激增至15370 BTC。请注意，截至10月7日，这一数字已降至2430 BTC。3 O8 \; [7 N9 s# c/ a
, o/ _9 K, K/ _4 d9 M, t大型持有者流量数据证实，过去五天鲸鱼购买压力大幅下降。
* S T1 V8 _$ R) @' E6 m4 C
2 F5 L6 m4 H- ~, ^7 n4 c5 c! ]此外，大型持有人地址的流出水平高于流入水平，这证实了鲸鱼的抛售压力正在上升。 x! o. [: C+ ? S4 N0 y
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比特币在过去24小时内已经超买，从而增加了逆转的可能性。! m, o1 S5 P) {4 u' S: H
y% J' m& A8 U3 t0 _& x5 d |
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