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比特币可能跌至 10000 美元的 5 个原因
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比特币底部到了吗？几个更高的时间框架指标表明 BTC 的实际底部将在 10000 美元左右
熊市历来对交易者来说一直具有挑战性，而确定良好切入点的传统“可靠”指标集无法预测加密货币冬天可能持续多长时间。
比特币最近回升至 20,000 美元的重要心理价格水平上方，这对许多交易者来说是一个迹象，表明已经触底，但更深入地研究数据表明，短期的救济反弹可能不足以证明宏观级趋势变化。
加密货币研究公司 Delphi Digital 在最近的一份报告中提供了需要谨慎的证据，该报告表明“在我们确信市场已经触底之前，我们需要看到更多的痛苦。”
尽管自 11 月比特币价格见顶以来已经感受到了痛苦，但将其自那时以来的回调与 2017 年市场顶部的比较表明短期内可能进一步下跌。
在之前的熊市中，BTC 的价格从最高点到最终最低点下跌了大约 85%。根据 Delphi Digital 的说法，如果历史要在当前环境中重演，它将转化为“略高于 10,000 美元的低点和当前水平的另一个 50% 的回撤。”
以太的前景更加悲观，因为之前的熊市看到其价格从峰值到谷底下跌了 95%。如果这次出现同样的情况，以太币的价格可能会跌至 300 美元。
超卖情况为准
对于寻找当前市场底部在哪里的交易者来说，数据显示“之前的主要市场底部与极端超卖条件相吻合。”
如下周图所示，BTC 的 14 周 RSI 近期第三次跌破 30，此前两次均接近市场底部。
虽然有些人可能将此视为现在是重新进入市场的好时机，但德尔福数字对那些预计会出现“V 型”复苏的人提出了警告，并指出“在前两次交易中，BTC 的交易价格为在最终强劲复苏之前，震荡盘整了几个月。”
对 200 周简单移动平均线 (SMA) 的看法也引发了历史支撑位是否会再次保持的问题。
比特币最近自 2020 年 3 月以来首次跌破 200 周均线。从历史上看，在之前的熊市期间，BTC 价格仅在该水平下方交易数周，这表明可能很快就会找到底部.
最终底部
市场现在真正寻找的是历史上标志着熊市结束和下一个周期开始的最终底部
尽管市场情绪目前处于 2020 年 3 月崩盘以来的最低点，但尚未完全达到 2018 年的绝望深度。
自 2021 年底以来，加密市场的疲软已经很明显，但市场崩溃背后的真正驱动力 |
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