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[1757] => 第三方支付
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[lastpost] => 2774971 比特币的看跌势头和期权市场:2025 年第三季度资本重新配置的情绪驱动分析(转) 1760890935 小钱儿
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当前离线
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BTC上涨至7万美元,扭转了网络基本面 ;- T* y% [+ a/ B( z$ Q
尽管存在短期调整和可能的盘整,但这是一个看涨信号吗 ;
& {4 f1 E* e2 O r; [比特币[BTC]网络基础知识转变积极的10月,分析师首次认为这是该资产中期的积极信号 ;
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根据CryptoQuant的数据积极的在牛市期间,网络指标是一个熟悉的趋势,尽管可能会出现调整或整合,但这表明该资产可能会出现积极的结果 ;/ l, L5 I5 K4 i) N
7 f) M! i6 E+ l
在最近上涨至7万美元后,30天内活跃BTC地址的平均数量飙升至100万大关。它达到了6月份的最后一个水平,表明在上周的抛售中,人们对该资产表现出了极大的兴趣 ;
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下一步BTC上涨?, S$ r( } K/ V& _, i9 E
采矿部门和网络费用也出现了类似的积极趋势。值得注意的是开采难度创下历史新高,表明BTC矿工之间对奖励的激烈竞争,这是BTC内在价值的积极催化剂 ;
1 Z0 A: {; n5 J7 n% V
0 w& l) P, V; Y; \3 a此外,截至发稿时,BTC的表观需求或生产和库存计划之间的差异飙升至25.6万BTC的6个月高点。在大多数情况下,需求的飙升总是伴随着BTC价格的上涨 ;; M& P0 J5 g1 q6 d: w( M2 `' d
" t' c* d4 p) Z# W9 V尽管有上述积极的催化剂,但随着美国大选的临近,分析师对BTC价格的预测喜忧参半。
7 h$ K& x1 }5 M& X
' C4 Z1 N# z) t, W& h" hBlockworks分析师Felix Jauvin警告在选举结束之前,BTC可能会受到区间限制 ;
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“在选举临近之际,没有人想成为这里风险的边际买家。在选举结束之前,可能只是一大笔钱……:
% n. Z1 f+ x: r2 ~% a2 s
9 _, M4 r1 M2 w3 l2 P另一位专家,贾斯汀·比尔内特,呼应了他的谨慎情绪,理由是鲸鱼对抓住最近周中的下跌缺乏兴趣 ;
- j! K3 ]7 W; M# g% E2 c* L0 d# A0 f5 ?! G3 W8 z# y, c
自10月17日以来,追踪鲸鱼相对于散户的定位的Whale vs.Retail Delta有所下降,这表明鲸鱼减少了BTC的敞口 ;+ A( m' Q7 }- v+ i1 b" Q$ d
7 z, V2 J- [, j5 X E6 U1 N3 z
有趣的是,期权交易员仍然看涨,这可以从他们在选举日前增加购买看涨期权(押注BTC价格会上涨)中看出。
+ C: L# v- M- H$ |7 c: ~5 }
5 X: W- o$ W' Q5 k1 \; Z$ t; m3 n在10月22日的每日更新中,交易公司QCP Capital注意,
$ Q6 F# T# k. @0 i6 ^6 V2 |" R: c
) F" U t7 ^( N# u' ?) Y( ]7 O“短期隐含波动率在选举日到期时达到峰值,与前一个到期日相差10个交易量,并且倾向于看涨期权而非看跌期权,尽管BTC比其历史高点低约8%”;
+ ^- `# i! ~ U) U' Z0 N0 j
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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