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[lastpost] => 2746899 如果比特币达到 100 万美元且 XRP 保持其市场份额，XRP 的价格如下（转） 1751721500 小钱儿
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比特币在特朗普关税威胁下遭遇重挫，曾经的"特朗普交易"热点正经历严峻考验。
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28日，比特币单日暴跌高达7.3%，跌至自去年11月以来的最低点，较历史高点下跌 25%。整个2月，比特币已下跌超过20%。若这一跌势持续到月底，将创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。$ U3 c& i# A7 L) c
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此次暴跌并非比特币独自承受，以太坊、Polkadot和XRP等其他主要加密货币同日均下跌超过7%，显示出加密市场的普遍恐慌情绪。BTC Markets Pty Ltd的首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示：
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"上一次我们看到类似情绪还是在2022年的'加密寒冬'期间。这次暴跌可以视为对特朗普关税和地缘ZZ不确定性等宏观忧虑的直接反应。"
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"特朗普交易"幻灭：加密资产从狂欢到挫折6 q0 ^: b1 K l4 @, T- L! ~
据央视新闻，特朗普于2月27日宣布，从3月4日起将对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税。这一消息打击了市场此前对特朗普可能改变贸易政策路线的期望。8 j8 U! x$ O- `4 \ }. B6 h
# V$ G- k" I! ^, [贸易紧张局势导致28日全球市场普遍出现避险情绪，亚洲股市几乎全线下跌，欧洲期货也出现下滑。但作为对风险情绪变化极为敏感的资产，加密货币成为受打击最严重的投资品类之一。
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: K! C/ m' e1 m9 I! y( Q比特币的暴跌凸显了市场情绪的急剧转变。曾经，买入比特币是最受欢迎的"特朗普交易"之一，投资者期望特朗普亲加密货币的政策立场将推动市场大幅上涨。加密托管公司Bitgo Inc亚太地区场外交易总监Stefan von Haenisch表示：
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+ y* b$ G. G* w3 t: C"考虑到当前宏观环境，我们现在的处境并不令人意外。"
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他补充说，交易员仍在等待特朗普为该行业提出具体措施，包括比特币储备计划。% e( B7 z$ U( q
2 m" b) N* v- N0 v6 {9 r市场前景：技术支撑与投资者撤资
+ H! w+ S& V% \' Q2 s- s' s投资者现在被迫思考世界上最大的加密货币可能会跌至何处。加密平台YouHodler的市场主管Ruslan Lienkha通过技术分析指出，比特币在70000美元附近有支撑位，但他表示投资者不应假设比特币崩盘会那么严重。Lienkha指出：5 W4 n5 H/ K7 o+ ]4 o( n h1 R; R
L4 o. |: L/ |& p9 H"只有在股票市场负面情绪主导的情况下，我们才会看到这一价位。") |- l5 h0 h3 K4 M' y1 G, I
( m" A8 Q0 c4 W5 C) P/ R* ]' ]1 H负面情绪本周也冲击了现货美国比特币ETF，周二投资者净流出超过10亿美元，创下这些产品自去年推出以来的最大单日流出。+ V- a( _/ A; E: E/ f
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尽管市场遭遇挫折，特朗普已经做出一些令加密货币支持者欣喜的改变，包括在关键职位安排加密货币支持者。此前在前任主席Gary Gensler领导下对加密行业进行多年打击的美国证券交易委员会，近几周来已关闭了对几家加密机构的调查。
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; l2 x& b& b( C特朗普曾表示，他希望将美国打造成"地球的加密货币之都和世界比特币超级大国"。然而，市场目前的表现表明，实现这一愿景可能比预期更具挑战性。
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根据彭博社策略师Mark Cudmore的观点，真正的恐慌可能还未到来。他警告说：7 F- F! f- x7 W
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"比特币未来总会经历另一次70%以上的崩盘，这是其固有特性。72000-74000美元区间可能是触发下一个加密寒冬的技术临界点。"- V( b* `& |7 w7 |. r, m2 Z# f
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