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[lastpost] => 2746901 $11 万的比特币 ￥108 万的 LABUBU（转） 1753589085 hong29
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。6 e8 _7 W! X* J2 B1 ~
. y2 h. u# g2 s, Z6 I瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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' u# @, J8 {. `0 X3 Z8 g; w( ~衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”- @3 l9 M" }5 R8 y
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金2 J4 [0 X+ _2 u2 `4 i
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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6 H- y# ]" f5 C6 Z& b3 w过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。8 j: W2 U% y! O+ {5 F& G! o
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更* g5 Z8 A( R/ x2 y& N4 C, d3 e
0 F s. ]" B) H+ i( O: V0 ~是表示：0 k! T8 R+ T. W+ q) S
. w% e0 x. `( f这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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4 {2 l5 o6 H! S, q历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币1 j3 x: K. o5 h/ x! J9 L; J, y9 ^
8 i+ a) W" s' G2 j特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史/ k. s# Y# H& P6 C0 N5 r$ B
6 C" H0 L7 `9 E" e$ l1 T3 s* `标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：/ S# j* L% S: O) R: H
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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( N4 n/ o f# a9 k( Y/ p+ {4 I" Q周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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, r" P" y" }! n; x2 X收益率冲高回落。9 w4 s& W( K0 y! T
6 [$ z A8 g& t. h
周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。, }( w1 m5 V& V! U1 o: N( S6 [$ W
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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# V# @. G Y; ^( F$ XLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，' t7 s; T5 C. I* w% c0 T4 D
% B$ S8 a+ B, t3 \是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。6 H4 b1 c( Q* _6 n
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/ i$ N0 G; Y& v Z+ I6 A& FRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。" j) N/ |3 B" e
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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