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. w( A$ Y0 c4 X. r0 L+ _- T 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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7 b9 z+ _! k2 L& ^ n逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政
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( F! k& x4 Z" ?7 _' K1 P策的确定性。
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中信证券主要观点如下：
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。$ [2 q+ O6 c) ]
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近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。3 L+ q4 r; K( T0 s' B
+ t6 S: |* F" B5 ?1 A& j5 Q1 g
2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现, d0 j7 R1 d4 g( }( s
8 [+ n6 s) o6 n$ W! J) a! z不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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. O- ?; f/ D% [0 u/ w$ Q: w# n 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。' Q, B, p/ Y& i: Z, e
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。( q$ f* f j; `
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。$ R) }$ m3 \" f" S/ A d
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫/ w" z: T0 I0 \ |
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。( V h. L3 S, P7 A1 C0 l
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
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, a( Z, Y1 M. r7 I# m+ M9 r6 s% N 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性2 c. A7 u" g1 e3 M' t6 f7 A
- w& R" g9 @: R3 z共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。1 e ] L& `$ L
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣% {/ `. e. d% |( h! q6 M
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。8 m( Q/ v7 `" i, Z' v- U
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。: X; V) y4 l% Q4 t
% D4 a/ {; q, S1 m l0 J 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政% U! _0 ~8 B- _. T) @+ l
]5 \" L6 _$ b* }- ?+ o- f- n策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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( [# t/ h0 c9 y6 Y- Z: ] 风险因素：
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。7 {' M: [% u' j3 N _ _& ?
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