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[lastpost] => 2752154 以太坊正取代比特币主导币圈?ETF连续六日净流入超越比特币(转) 1753521784 九嶷风
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' o% e, L: c5 ^3 w5 r; P5 A1 Q 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,
0 h, `0 Y7 w: V; f$ Q+ ?: @6 M9 F7 W+ Y8 w+ p
1 v2 S' @ _1 O形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于$ H. B. C+ z: n7 r4 w' f, x* C; f% ?
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逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政1 x5 ?1 v% f t+ G$ L
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策的确定性。
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" R7 y0 Q7 W" C* Y: I7 ~5 v; }9 x 中信证券主要观点如下:
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。& z. |) Q# {' s i6 [
- k/ s; {; P5 k0 _( ?3 D 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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7 x3 A1 K [! ?8 W! r( H不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。0 `. E# x7 P" H1 n4 W( O' u
% |) u3 P& q& b 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。: s8 [6 S! Y0 i3 N1 g) g: e5 @: N
* w* d( r/ ?! I8 A7 y) e& D 从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。* ^& ~% \9 a5 T, K. j7 n# a$ v7 J
+ x, I5 ]0 R+ B1 y; ~ 加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。
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- H/ r h: w6 d5 T" z 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。' q5 C' [2 m+ C
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我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。
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; z0 @. ~* j5 C0 s" n5 j 长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。; G: ~- a! ~; ~( h
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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5 ~8 b& C: r- P2 m5 I/ T9 K势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。9 k: ?( C. ~2 v# Z7 a. W
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展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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! g; ?" P( A/ s1 t6 G 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。1 [- i q2 M7 r g" D d
: E z3 \7 k9 {6 a 风险因素:
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特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。
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