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[lastpost] => 2750291 山寨币季来临：以太坊表现优于比特币 24%（转） 1752847244 人生如赌
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当前离线
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的
5 V. y7 X% s( h5 O1 P比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要& Z* h2 }' v/ Y
短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。* M0 D! O# V! @2 ^' J
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比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内
" H! Y$ R/ N2 B* m实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。+ J! J$ P0 r+ @* [/ q; A# V
1 y. x, N8 a' O" K; a. b# G8 @然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。: t M! H3 H l9 f0 V
( A9 l B7 b' J( wSTH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。 # ^$ u* b% a8 `
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尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。
6 {; a+ _8 K# T9 Y) i" H
: Y9 J( z$ a+ k& n9 I) q5 ]这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
* i0 W9 n0 b# D V% r/ l8 K7 O' j. W5 {7 ^+ t4 z4 Q
比特币价格结构和风险区域8 M w& D4 _ t- z9 E( Q
发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。
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( d1 V3 A1 w, ]' H7 Q; v这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。
" @' L5 e: p8 f1 {- z' y0 z/ ]' q+ U" D( \- F- t' Z; s+ q% d
布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。+ ~8 r0 i8 Y6 y8 X9 B
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但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。2 q e- Q% Z- n1 E, E" z
8 I4 z4 c6 `7 |" { a1 P# c$ K/ |0 h这对比特币趋势意味着什么( s5 D- n% y$ p/ f8 w) `
未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。7 C' E0 [; l* ~4 i
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如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。% d& [0 g: X/ Q' D
6 Y2 } Z/ d# ?' C; K: L总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。6 |! n) ` e: o+ w& ^4 I) c
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