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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。1 F8 ^3 R' f5 ]1 U0 h6 W$ b7 k* o+ Z
% s& L4 T1 }( n4 T" C! n在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。% x; m4 `- A: k' ^! u& U
$ `& R1 r& f, g& v+ U比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
0 C+ @8 I, H. PVenturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。
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就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：. I( b. ]5 I0 e7 J- @
; [" R* k* P& e e+ N9 O“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。$ {+ X- J ^8 W' {. W: H
$ P0 ]- ]9 `4 O! U& R- o即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。! X8 p2 B4 Y0 T* o9 K
( n" d8 o, J; c' u; aVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：. Y& t3 J0 O. G0 l* M9 |$ [1 o
( S% Y, I% C+ o9 U“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”
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底部预测不断出现( P9 O. s, z# W# s4 J% `
与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。$ u. I2 X! |* H' N2 b, e- J$ h
/ }: M7 |+ O" a2 J这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。/ `9 O b1 V' N, |$ p+ ?7 E
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。
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BTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode& R0 i/ w! N3 c+ L4 a0 Q
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上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。6 @1 s* R% N4 w3 Z% f! o n
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卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。
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* u1 z2 g5 c$ p a交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。# X2 @& d% G& K9 x2 P
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