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[lastpost] => 2749378 为什么比特币今天会下跌?分析师认为有3个主要原因!下一波大幅反弹将出现-转 1752948872 爬格子的瘦书生
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BTC在过去一周中恢复了适度的恢复,徒步旅行2.81%。
# p3 A2 p9 {6 ?% D比特币的杠杆比率下降,因为投机需求降温,而现货需求上升。, l6 t; [% R6 \# _
在过去的一周中,比特币[BTC]继续向侧面交易。实际上,截至撰写本文时,比特币在上升0.22%后的交易价格为07.052美元。
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此外,BTC在每周和每月的图表上分别远足2.81%和2.89%。
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最近的价格泵提出了有关哪些因素驱动它的问题。 Inasmuch,加密分析师Dan提出,BTC的杠杆比率降低,BTC的机构需求和长期积累的较高。
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. b% K' I. a$ Y0 N1 O比特币的杠杆率降低
6 v$ M: u$ z% i' c根据CryptoQuant自11月21日以来,比特币的杠杆比率已下降。杠杆比率的下降表明,相对于集中式交易所可用的BTC,开放利息(OI)正在下降。, P* g: F! } ^: H1 `2 M
% g* c: q0 x5 i! R% K3 @从历史上看,较低的杠杆比率降低了清算级联的风险,从而使价格动作更有机而不是衍生品驱动。
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同样,相对于价格,OI到市场上限也有所下降。这种下降表明,价格图的收益在很大程度上是由现货需求而不是投机驱动的。
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* d \3 @* \* w" w卖出比率也证明了这一趋势,这意味着随着市场的降温,较长的头寸即将结束。9 X0 k' J3 Y }- m
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值得注意的是,至关重要的是,CEX储备还经历了持续下降。在此期间,BTC在购买比特币ETF的同时转移到了Coinbase Prime。当CEX储备下降时,这意味着可以出售的BTC较少。 Coinbase的流量增加表明,大型参与者,尤其是机构正在积累。) y2 ?1 t1 s8 ~
9 t8 P9 w" m j( Y- }当所有这些市场行为融合在一起时,这意味着比特币目前正在看到健康的市场。价格不是由杠杆驱动的,使未来的集会更加可持续。0 T: i8 f' M7 h* O, I3 S8 {6 p
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这对BTC意味着什么
# ]% s _; R7 B/ z% @; t9 i随着杠杆率较小,机构积极积累的杠杆率较小,这表明市场正在经历强烈的看涨情绪。' W) v i5 \' f! M) V/ [0 s
0 U' P4 N G/ v; g例如,比特币的Coinbase Premium指数在过去一周中一直保持积极。这不仅表明了美国投资者的积极情绪,而且还提高了机构的需求。/ m1 q: M# f- o8 W( V
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从历史上看,机构的需求更高,在提高价格上涨方面发挥了关键作用。$ P) V8 d! Y7 `+ Q4 J- y
+ L* u/ ~2 b. k" n. {; k此外,比特币的基金市场溢价在过去的一天中飙升了积极。当这变得积极时,这意味着投资者是看好的,渴望的短裤以保持自己的职位。, f% {4 a3 v# N6 p% u' |
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这意味着渴望的价格会在短期内上涨。
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最后,市场参与者越来越积累,流出量超过流入。 Exchange Netflow已下降到-2.9k,随着投资者继续积累,反映了更多的交换提款。
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3 s" g$ v3 W& m+ F读 比特币的[BTC]价格预测 2025–20260 W" I6 {% h$ `
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简而言之,随着零售和大型持有人的积累,比特币正在增强看涨的势头。这种市场行为表明,BTC市场已经冷却,将加密货币定位为进一步的收益。
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如果这种情绪成立,BTC将在短期回收$ 98,127,然后尝试突破至$ 10万美元。随后,这里的回调将使比特币降至$ 95,800。8 U" [1 H) ^# e: g+ @+ d2 g5 g! Y
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