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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。/ R7 v6 J! z6 N5 G& F
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。1 K+ X% ^% p9 x8 g* q% S+ @
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。* A( z- q$ F2 [ [% _' k- [
! B# ^% C: G, o2 g其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。" Z: ]7 ~" ^8 W4 x. u* i
{! S* i R' Q# ^Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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' q" M* @* t4 v% W3 d) l9 `“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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* y$ T8 d% b! n7 c因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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0 s& F2 m% i$ |- U0 M) Y1 d- I7 lBTC 图表暗示了什么
3 D) A& O& L9 X8 ^2 B" W虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。2 Z5 I! z. x- W" M! o
, Z9 q. H, i! }首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
: @9 G* M4 i: }* A+ J H
& W6 K8 h# M! u' ^) e: b比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
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9 m1 W4 R+ k5 ?当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
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最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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* q& k7 w1 o' [% u) P( K; ]* M$ w截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。- F w1 f A7 ^8 R1 p# {1 }0 q; G, c
4 l6 R/ V( k* L I4 C简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。8 W8 T& I% o* ^ E* B5 U- B
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。: K7 [9 l g* O1 L
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