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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格预测:多头将捍卫 10.8 万美元还是会进一步下跌?(转)
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比特币的价格如何?
. ]7 c( m l( T/ M% Z+ J+ T最新的比特币价格走势显示,突破布林带上轨的尝试失败,随后迅速跌至中线,并从盘中支撑位107,400美元附近短暂反弹。30分钟和4小时图显示,5月23日出现了一次显著的抛售K线,在比特币短暂测试111,000美元区域后,触发了看跌吞没形态。
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尽管自5月7日以来,4小时图上出现了强劲的上行通道,但此次下跌依然出现。目前,价格正在测试该上升通道的中线,这预示着多头的关键时刻。如果跌破该支撑位,我们可能会看到更深的回调,跌向105,900美元。+ w4 C1 f ?. P+ {7 u3 G5 F" A0 K5 R
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技术分析:EMA、布林带、趋势线, Y+ o9 w7 c2 ~7 M
4小时图上,比特币价格已跌破20日均线(108,753美元),目前正在测试50日均线(106,934美元)的短期支撑位。该区域也与布林带中轨(109,405美元)重叠,后者近期已从支撑位转为阻力位,表明上方布林带存在压力。
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5月7日以来的趋势线支撑位仍然完好,但面临威胁。如果价格跌破106,800美元,我们可能会看到价格跌向104,200美元,即100日均线所在位置。上行方面,近期阻力位在110,000美元附近,随后是112,800美元,此前的供应区域曾阻止价格上涨。
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9 ~# L# S( G5 f& a |$ J动量指标:RSI、MACD、Ichimoku、Stoch RSI
! K4 [5 k) x* q7 N* V: k) [动量工具开始反映看跌背离。30分钟RSI指标跌破45,且尚未出现明显反转迹象。与此同时,MACD柱状图已转为红色,信号线向下穿过MACD线,证实了价格图表上显示的疲软走势。
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较低时间框架下的一目均衡表显示,比特币交易价格低于转折线和基准线,且低于云层,表明短期趋势已耗尽。然而,前方云层仍然稀薄,这意味着即使多头重新获得力量,阻力也有限。* m& e! }- |. _* }9 f, f; s
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随机 RSI 在 30 分钟图上闪烁超买信号,在 80 关口附近出现看跌交叉,警告如果成交量未能确认,任何反弹都可能立即遭到拒绝。
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短期展望及预测表# A/ v) Z) I( Z) x1 X8 e: ~
比特币价格的走势在很大程度上取决于价格对106,900美元至107,300美元需求区间的反应。如果多头能够有力地守住该区间,反弹可能会重新瞄准109,800美元和111,000美元。如果未能守住该区间,则可能跌向104,000美元至105,000美元区间。. p- k$ h- k; s4 x/ L6 K% c
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