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[lastpost] => 2750705 比特币成“救国神器”?英财政部想靠72亿美元加密资产填财政缺口 1753374021 天策-瑶娥
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政2 x! w- ^6 f1 U' m) T5 E! y, T6 k
: [% ?& ?$ Y, ^策的确定性。
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6 p4 y' i8 u: W4 f' ` 中信证券主要观点如下:
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。' q. |: P# L: ^( W# Z0 }/ _6 f$ ^* h
8 w; }: n8 I' L9 p D5 \ 近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。8 L4 I3 ?7 F- M! t7 b' P0 S
9 d. ]% }0 z. b% T 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。+ R' E3 Q; l! S k0 d1 h* ?) \
4 E Q& U6 l, [; J 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。0 o* l; z+ i2 G" u. s
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从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。" A2 z. S7 I9 Z1 W
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫
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" C9 P! ~$ D `8 q5 N/ a, k, v& v) v破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。2 `1 \, Z. f' V3 M) y8 S
& Q$ `. w# e& y* _+ K 短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。' H: H( M" I( @( q
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我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性8 O# p$ o$ \- f5 R
C2 h9 P& o& R5 Z4 L3 F, b/ l2 B共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。5 z9 ]" O" Z* l" D
8 b: g2 V8 U3 Q# u7 Y7 { 长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣7 k* }2 [: J$ c# R
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势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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6 L1 r; d6 {- P- t4 S9 a( ~ 展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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, c) b8 C6 n; e0 [1 ]7 d7 b0 A; o1 K 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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) C- [$ U2 s/ H1 \+ c策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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风险因素:1 k' d* D0 p" a1 D/ Y8 ^# s) T; P
) n m8 P) ]6 N, i/ O U 特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。
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