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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
( @+ F2 {9 {0 c8 }$ A" H7 @+ k" e7 B6 o; ?% V* k
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
' v9 @# A, T4 s, k# E' k/ y* [- i! T7 d$ i
其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!/ D: [3 Q5 w$ s9 l. h$ q6 B+ _
8 Q" M& l0 S ~8 S5 S% ]& Q/ g( B2 z% k首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。7 C9 T5 A+ ?- ]& G4 w
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!! } ] \, N% _. j. K( U; b
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。+ M6 l0 V8 e: {& h2 h
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。' ^# X4 I( j0 P; j% L
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!8 p" j2 i# O' u! [4 ?
6 A7 ^2 v' I, N8 k, I% V' {玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。8 c7 n2 l( Z' J! k; a- |5 Y% @
- C5 f' v8 `' _; `$ I U j- y这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。' V1 w2 L4 K+ |
?1 D* I6 M4 T3 u" _8 e接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?) @+ q# r+ J* I6 o! i, E) Y% l
D4 }9 d2 E- Y: g. Z/ N" g玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。5 F! q8 v2 u H! K" i
5 n* V+ J! r: q, ]& ]再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。# a. \7 E2 F8 A
8 [. @. G9 z4 M+ u& m但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902% X9 @# n, w/ n: T
3 i j; _1 L6 m ]( W/ ~* D4 N0.2% 1.003606
9 P, o2 v ^; d" [: g( t2 t
: K. t: B: \# X! [8 w0.3% 1.0051130 Z( Z4 E" m) G+ k& J! B
8 {' M# W! c5 A0.4% 1.006421
4 P" J3 z+ r: k
; A& v% z5 p' _9 C6 M+ C" E' J0.5% 1.007528. I b1 q3 j8 ]1 {% ~$ y6 ^$ Q$ p
; u, ?0 s6 L6 s! s
0.6% 1.0084354 @, g, u5 z) m
4 X1 u4 _+ Z! |% r% Q; ~' E
0.7% 1.0091425 t, j! ~" i1 O4 D
( F* P9 [8 {, o& Q; E
0.8% 1.009646/ _4 u: A2 `; t5 _
z; w ?' Q3 i. l( C
0.9% 1.0099493 V# [( M+ g/ K
" X3 L3 E% K% |; @* u5 w* G! k1.0% 1.01005
2 N+ o# x1 I: G# u7 D- |9 c' ^; I4 G. ?! n" U- j+ V5 s
1.1% 1.0099492 [+ i+ }8 o1 q9 h
; H J% T; _9 b. I H% s1.2% 1.009646
0 h8 G; d; s$ O2 r3 [4 @" Q5 n( J! V# G8 I; W! ^1 \- E0 C$ t
1.3% 1.009142
6 R& T- l$ d" E& O' t; w" L% y5 _/ C8 E. L4 H: Y- z9 o2 ^
1.4% 1.0084356 D, ~3 e, q0 l6 N: S) K$ L0 d4 v0 u
! C5 j5 a! f4 }3 z/ ~7 K6 _
1.5% 1.007528# Q/ [: H1 k$ T- R: y, z
& s Z2 H6 @: E8 V+ W. q1.6% 1.00642
- }: {& y- L3 L5 D% b/ }+ r
2 Q3 d5 x) z. H: s& ], X0 C1.7% 1.005112
' c; q9 |6 Y: [7 }. e5 E
9 G& X! M- c: q( |/ _5 V9 G1 u1.8% 1.003605. M0 \# L2 [1 N2 ?$ t1 x
$ k( m' [7 k1 i5 |; z8 r) W
1.9% 1.0019
: r% Y4 S. Z% e3 }* d5 n2 [% x' q! u
: [1 l0 t+ i5 u. y* d$ O5 O2.0% 0.999997
$ i3 |* D: `# V% b; l0 U0 d( s X& Z9 m1 t7 M7 y
2.1% 0.997899
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+ r5 U2 B; z; a r# c* Y1 j4 Q3 x2.2% 0.995605
0 C+ }! }4 M' U7 n8 n! F9 z% Z
* ^+ p. I/ M9 F4 \2.3% 0.993118" b( s2 r' H8 \8 V6 D5 Q
+ S% ?% ^ x# B% d! \9 J3 w
2.4% 0.990439
& G" {5 z, ^; M, \3 [4 d" q) ~' u" ?6 Y6 A1 j
2.5% 0.987569* ]# U1 j/ U: A n- e( Y% Y4 v) S6 }
+ U6 w0 ]) j2 r) [; t& G+ H2 i2.6% 0.98451
* w3 u v) _' j) i2 M8 y1 X: Y) X" g. j* \5 b
2.7% 0.981264
6 l% f) a+ G$ `+ `% V* N9 P+ M9 Z, V5 M
2.8% 0.977833* c- G1 _, b8 r) [! E) _6 I% q
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2.9% 0.974219 F6 l6 f2 Y9 E% O+ t( y$ b
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3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利5 _4 }8 }$ m6 O5 Z; {: _5 e# f( h
: J- |/ m9 Y% @% r) F2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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2 |- C2 X( D6 |3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈* L& G' v. K( B- v: A; K
8 w0 |( f! F* K& d. e8 x凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...0 v; v- m" [$ l; r- i' X6 E
! W* @# K( o. ~# r; _然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。: y( |6 g7 q E6 T0 l; D
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。1 K! T& x, G! I% q( g
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