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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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; @$ g5 T; {# T8 `% N在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。) u+ \7 C2 R3 N6 |+ m6 U+ B
( I0 y6 k- g$ F& K8 Z! P" p比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
; l6 h% u* y7 A" F. D: J+ SVenturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。% c i9 H4 `0 S1 G1 n, z: @
7 ^; `# _1 q7 e就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：
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n! Z/ S( _/ C( X: B“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”1 w- ]2 j. p: p) ]' m) O
1 D B! _* H1 C这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。
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; l6 a+ g) F) o4 D9 }即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。% d" K* V1 v+ G. i" C
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Venturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。/ K g* E! \- S k
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：& M0 t% ] y) _% u
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“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”
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- p5 [% y5 I; \& s! O底部预测不断出现
: ^2 ]6 w4 w5 E f0 A4 ?与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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; Q3 @- P/ ]% z( M这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。7 [& g8 A3 u3 _- Y
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- r; ]2 |& q0 C! w. E0 ]BTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。
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: F3 S5 G/ W4 M" @1 ^2 l卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。
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/ T) K! M# E; G交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。1 R, i& X) T/ P& D
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