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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 & z4 D. \6 j+ J: {/ M' o0 F
余勋也不例外、 ; h5 J8 r& {: \; n3 J1 o# i
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
1 j8 t5 o! ~& k2 X是保经济的重要决策！ + }. r5 D/ E. ~! s
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
3 p S( n8 U- |3 q% y低点26700-32400、 , c- D: a! p4 |) n: }3 r1 w5 j. \
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
" p# u" \, D: V3 H/ q; f* }% a但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 9 c" Q7 ?3 z4 P" K# j: ]4 J
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 2 V; w6 N, O$ A3 T& H) R
涨幅就已回撤过半！
* d! g2 o: D7 X6 K' p" c所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 6 ]2 C. v% E' d$ Z. y5 P* U
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 4 X# s4 B5 }; a+ { J5 N4 W6 m
其次、
; c6 A6 G# |1 a/ R$ e缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 0 S* [2 s. W% s
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ' p3 _0 \: G2 z$ H/ t0 I
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ! h" a; f1 C" a9 m
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 6 Z2 Z+ `9 \) U% `. |
但回到币圈、
( D) P+ R" {0 B0 t* B去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
$ k) s% {2 T# c; t9 ?5 i: X! h在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ' z* E7 z1 c3 }3 j
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 ) D/ x' j( i% Z* {1 @! l' r* D
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ( C; o1 i, W C. W
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 $ m6 w/ C: K# ~8 a
对当前的底部、影响有限。
% l3 Q* l& h' b最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 / d- x/ Y/ L" H
所以27000、即是
8 m$ b& a% w8 B- p% H6 X, b+ [1 `去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 0 s! |; z! F* Y5 w
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 " W* O- {- @9 J- v5 L1 _
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 / X( T4 x4 v' n& _8 o3 _3 \2 V
由此得出的结论是、
! K- N) v" H5 E9 D- G加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
. x0 Q2 f% r6 I3 S点位不会出现太大偏离。
4 @) c! ^1 N: Y综合以上、 + w& h2 T' A! y4 i7 T: C
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
# C2 U1 {1 x9 [在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
3 w: |! E" S& k那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
. X& ?& E) W& X1 i抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
, C9 o4 r( K5 p8 Y* d! m那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
- p0 D+ ^% _" \6 _, X即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
b( @/ I! A1 ^# J) [美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
4 p( L$ O8 f) H夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 * v1 s( i8 H% W% }8 y6 X3 Q5 T
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
7 q1 F8 U* ]% G2 ]0 h逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
, ] N$ c3 i9 J( N高空需至31700-32000间布局、 + t5 [6 O3 I7 X
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 " P1 h" i; {* G* F
得不偿失。
: U9 m4 b( R* S来源：金色财经 |
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