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[lastpost] => 2749387 比特币市值超亚马逊，机构拼命买，散户却“已读不回” 1752942675 天策-瑶娥
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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: F* ]9 ~- e; c0 U. i2 o瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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$ H7 E* N L" R- s/ f衰退，我担心的是金融危机。” I5 B0 H6 s9 J) @# d# b7 F/ D, W
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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" R) l2 Y% |. u8 ^融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益- Y# n+ ?6 Y+ t9 b8 o- A
7 x p K. J& r2 u0 u率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。7 |, F' }; s$ q: O9 K) X" @" a
7 y$ I3 w1 e- }然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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) {' y$ H) M; ^% b是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。* d" M- l( Q) k5 B; Q }5 a3 M" b9 p9 J
4 E$ W" X, Q1 i* }9 ~历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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0 [( V, f; \) N- ~特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史5 p6 s4 ~0 d+ ]! ]5 }/ [% H9 _
: B* o- j8 M4 ]+ Q3 f8 _2 s7 y! T标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：3 @( c% S% v" [. Z0 W4 l4 L* E
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。7 y4 Z( W% I$ g2 ]$ P! q
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债+ F8 ~* o& P# ]3 c, ^7 x
9 h4 S6 p' o8 Z4 u2 x2 V/ \1 d收益率冲高回落。9 g2 Z. O" l- Q1 Z& C, P
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。! X) X$ k# }6 e8 }1 ]$ Q6 S
0 h$ v2 Q' N# \# H周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。; ?; Z9 m% M4 J# E
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，9 ]# p, {9 Z7 ^
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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1 X9 S% |9 N1 ]" c0 D年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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* c( J- a. n7 q' v) {& U5 BRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"$ W7 F# h+ _ @
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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