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[lastpost] => 2768433 一年暴增40%！24万人靠加密成百万富翁，你还在观望吗？ 1758873022 rainwang
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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, v) F4 b" x3 n. y瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”3 W4 ^$ f$ K/ N- V- i% r
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金+ S5 I6 X1 U* E! s- O1 n
+ R# I* j( g& P! i. P9 T o* r8 b融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。# d1 R( y6 S% D; R
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益5 ]! J& s! r& w# p: ^# L
6 A9 ?" n$ R7 s8 [率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国" W3 O/ J* d3 |; a& M
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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7 W' g) T1 D- P! S这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币, b: E. B. ^* b3 }6 y$ P6 X/ q% `* ~
: g0 z3 [. H3 r" E$ X5 k/ ~特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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2 I: n$ ?4 J- E: l( s1 k% B周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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! q+ o, C; ?0 j s( z2 s5 X& [周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债% ^5 k0 U3 `9 D" c
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收益率冲高回落。4 z) k# _1 x! g8 e# p9 G2 c
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。5 B0 P( |+ L6 `/ a, j/ ^- A
$ L" B" I- Y% e2 I2 X周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。! j' d3 v$ I$ Y! |4 i
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" Z/ B8 @5 F* b* a- z- q- X: BLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"6 L L0 b6 m, s# M8 a
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去% @& y1 y% m& z; Y8 n# n
6 l/ Y! S3 [, a/ r* M; A1 ]7 U$ p: v年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。") \7 o0 R Y2 I+ H+ ^
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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