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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在恐慌与不确定性中保持强势:BTC 如何避免进一步亏损(转)
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比特币下跌 7% 表明宏观压力不断上升,市场正在重新调整。
' W, p. Y$ \: i2 `6 ] V随着避险资金流的增强,金价仍距历史高点仅 2%。
2 T2 T. b! F2 g, |0 G) t* j宏观恐惧与不确定性(FUD)又回到了讨论中,但说实话,它从未真正消失过。反过来,比特币[BTC]再次成为众矢之的。
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经过三天的深度去杠杆后,“10 万美元有风险吗?”的讨论又重新活跃起来。
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然而,BTC 并没有持续下跌太久。它强劲反弹 3%,再次测试 10.5 万美元大关,而这一走势看起来并非昙花一现。
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据AMBCrypto称,交易员似乎正在从过去的市场震荡中吸取教训,将之前的恐惧转化为策略。如果真是这样,这是否意味着大众最终会变得更加聪明?/ B2 c+ `, _# F5 C! Q" X# Y% d5 Q
' y% J) \5 a1 D; M0 I* C0 @! z0 ^6 DFUD 情绪升温,BTC 表现强劲
* j9 z% Z9 V( K) \2 ?别误会,这并非典型的关税引发的市场恐慌与不确定性。目前正在上演的是两个中东国家之间的全面冲突,这两个国家都是OPEC的重要成员国。
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% I% X: A2 h' R过去两个月里,油价已上涨近40%,与伊朗相关的原油基准价格在过去24小时内飙升近5%。这一切都发生在距离联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下次决议不到一周之际。
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$ n5 r* \( A* q7 u+ Z9 D4 ^风险资产回应迅速地。" R. r+ k6 {. q: {
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道琼斯指数下跌近 900 点,随着资本防御性地转向债券,10 年期美国国债收益率下跌近 3%,美元指数 (DXY) 下跌约 3%,反映出全球市场正在降低风险。
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' ~* W/ t+ [3 ]5 E" k黄金[XAU]也做出了回应,在避险需求激增的背景下,上涨近4%,至3,432美元。从技术面来看,黄金目前已近在咫尺,距离重返历史高点仅剩2%。
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' S/ [! y( [" d% v, y当然,有些人会指出比特币7%的跌幅,并称这证明“韧性”论调正在崩盘。考虑到围绕加息可能暂停的“预期”不断升温,这种担忧也合情合理。0 h) a' |7 M; \* Y v
3 a- G H y: Z然而,市场定位却揭示了一个更加微妙的故事。它表明,这与其说是屈服,不如说是重新调整。
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交易员越来越聪明+ [8 y$ c X5 s5 ~1 Y
尤其, 机构流动已悄然再次转为看涨,不到一周的时间,就有近 13 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF。5 Z Q8 |8 T0 y. m, h* P( G3 V
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这种流入起到了关键的减震器的作用,支持 BTC 从低点迅速回升 3%。
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但最大的不确定因素是什么?衍生品交易员。与以往不同,过去未平仓合约 (OI) 过热预示着拥挤,并会导致大幅清算,而这次期货市场保持着惊人的克制力。) P! U( ` [6 z3 `# G: } ^
3 N. B0 q+ I5 _- Z1 Y举个例子:5月23日,BTC创下11.1万美元的历史新高,而持仓量(OI)则达到803.1亿美元的峰值。然而,这种泡沫最终引发了市场剧烈的崩盘,导致BTC回落至100,424美元。; L* P4 c' ~5 Z/ L" C
) o6 @0 P/ T$ k当然,现在宣布确认反弹还为时过早,但这些迹象值得注意。
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尽管在恐慌与不确定性(FUD)爆发前,比特币的看涨势头有所增强,但其持仓量并未达到峰值,即便市场一度逼近历史新高。这种克制表明,市场持仓结构正在日趋成熟。
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与……相比以太坊[ETH],BTC参与者此次采取了更为谨慎的态度。. F6 A: L. Y7 x$ G& X9 S
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通过控制杠杆,他们大大降低了连锁清算事件的风险,有可能挽救数百万美元的损失。
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加上机构资金流入的强劲吸收,金价再次跌破 10 万美元的可能性现在看来越来越小。+ X+ h5 X9 j( y" J( B. L0 |2 g
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