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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。& W* R$ L2 |0 V# L
/ l, k! N/ P8 [* T, J根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。1 o+ J. T, [5 n0 R( j: W/ y
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上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。
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当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。
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山寨币季节性指数
+ @8 ~4 ?7 L0 z2 e资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。
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5 F5 Y" j0 } {8 f. X. w8 a! t此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。( M g. m$ [# n5 S: C/ c6 z
0 S3 h5 m! q) L$ j2 ?6 Z& t3 J山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。0 ?! R+ p" u+ {2 f% L% L* d5 i1 v
0 ~. `) m4 F- P3 L) s当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。. v, ?& U4 W6 C$ i$ W0 s8 _
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根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。# t! \; } ]; M1 y
b$ _8 M% g7 J' b+ w8 j然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。
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2 X- t* [& h7 Y- T3 D8 @链上活动仍然至关重要# B* l1 a8 U( j- x# \
虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。! y" ?. M) h3 G6 T4 `
* Q9 f; q! A; O. C$ a- B* l! x2 p/ `这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。
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TVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。2 h+ s+ a4 f2 P# D4 M. R- F/ d7 G
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目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。1 y; g9 }( V1 c! X* A
$ ], P! J2 {' Q/ m, T# _# N此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。9 o8 `7 _! B0 I6 T, d; k$ K! e. y5 W
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比特币与山寨币的去相关性
* S* _) B1 }7 c( F7 l比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。
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* ~& E) o0 \4 k; x当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。0 q2 P7 u. ^: n2 C
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对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。- {, C2 @# V' `9 F t- f& ?
$ ~2 @/ w& X" F+ F4 B9 Y. q这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。
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4 G m. b! O$ ~5 ] B! j1 C从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。
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' c# g) J& q, N6 N$ ~最后想说的话* s/ z3 L- S. v- l
目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。: o7 {8 z0 ]' k# \1 n
经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。
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