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[lastpost] => 2794153 比特币重回 9 万美元大关——这会是比特币 2026 年的真正价格底部吗？（转） 1767531331 爱美的女人
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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。- \. t& ]* v3 o) @1 l
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比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”' s5 F+ ]/ ` Q2 C4 [1 p
Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。; d& I( Z0 o7 M% }; {
0 D! K0 @3 t. R$ `就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。; R4 S3 O. s7 w5 i: m$ x6 m
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道： \: U# c* k- ^3 X
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。; `! e3 p: I5 U6 U* C& J. o
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即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。/ T* C+ _$ t9 m9 C" w; {+ S& R
% S3 i: X3 I" YVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。; t+ `* @8 @9 x4 z8 B6 g, J# }
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：' l, q) q# K* O8 g* A% {" a7 }
! J2 s4 F3 p* X& n5 c" `“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”% c, a! _; w- C) @% Y% n T5 P- b
( ^. e% z9 k6 J底部预测不断出现
& ` y! h5 O6 ^" n+ D与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。2 q0 m2 i6 c' L/ [ T; r: p+ E& [
3 P7 U, X, I- M5 Q5 y- X- S7 j这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。5 R/ q, s8 N( J5 E/ Q8 D
) z4 l- I4 V; I* Q链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。) u. A0 {% {9 S' m6 v+ k1 X% R
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' C. D- Z5 w) l' m* d" j; [BTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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: T# f, a9 x) z+ b- K& }0 L! q6 F上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。, z% V; d* S: z! T0 z
& v. |# b R1 `" |; U# i# d卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。
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" @0 l/ P2 D6 s- G: A交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。; p7 ~' k7 ~$ N7 }
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