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[lastpost] => 2769443 10 月 1 日美国ZF关门会导致 XRP、比特币和加密货币崩溃吗？（转） 1758951488 22301
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
) b: K7 ]0 a% v余勋也不例外、 . U8 W9 W" h( u+ y" F; b) W
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
- J8 k( @. g6 c5 `, _% L7 V& w$ b是保经济的重要决策！
5 V" ]7 S) |: @' g5 G这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
: f3 |9 q7 h! q3 F2 A$ T/ o低点26700-32400、 1 }& k' m% H+ @) }/ v; |# j
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
& l' _& R) k: k6 X( N但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
) X2 Y1 n0 j! m# q" M, d大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ' u# ^2 d# h9 K2 p
涨幅就已回撤过半！ , J4 E; f% H' ]5 Q0 \3 k6 [
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 7 g Z% G# I. C6 S/ j
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
+ t% r4 a8 Y5 t) I其次、 3 O, l8 |! D6 {$ _& i2 c. Z
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 0 H1 m5 V8 M5 P Q5 U
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 % C K; K( r3 l3 q( j$ h7 Y
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
% R( i8 y$ Z3 i6 i% O. E1 W$ }美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
. O6 y7 L; a# D+ Q但回到币圈、
: _( w) t0 X' }' P# I8 B$ b! s去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 . e- P) ?9 R" T( w* G6 F
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
% _! b% R" ?! G% ~而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
0 p( T' y9 b& t个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
3 I: R: w' e9 q) ^4 K# J- v缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
' s" x- q2 v. P! K对当前的底部、影响有限。 $ [% |. n* S& n- g+ g1 g. T1 j( r8 T' \
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
$ ^7 S0 a$ j- T+ G Y" s0 T所以27000、即是
/ f4 c1 K' g) M' L5 [ t去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
$ `/ E! R: l. }4 }( G8 U4 R同时还是去年放水初期低点、
& ^8 i1 o& }! u2 _8 P0 q也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 ( [$ Z! K I" G, X
由此得出的结论是、 % g7 q7 L2 F. @4 ] i; e
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
& C! |' k X! z. \& b) L/ o4 H8 ^1 f点位不会出现太大偏离。 4 Q9 a5 d# a3 k
综合以上、 " J4 l5 h8 W( f# l' F9 f
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
) n2 Y- f3 ^9 m& F# Q% T6 w在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 1 n6 @$ f! m' v/ y& c* d) w
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 + z4 I+ c, i2 b. R1 \6 A) P4 e! g8 F
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
- n, J2 Q# V' Q% F. o那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 / }2 v6 L2 j! L: L; d7 Y
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
3 _9 T& R8 T! x- ^" `( m美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
$ I% H i5 I! o4 h; a9 Y夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
J$ J6 b" W' D9 a6 Z- N4 @7 I大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
; c% F; ~0 N" ?7 b9 v. \' g& j逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 0 t- s1 g$ H9 B1 d9 s/ g5 m
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 $ j2 Y4 G$ }; q$ Y! e9 V/ t
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
- ~: L6 O. r: [' q8 Z: h9 V得不偿失。
) I8 }/ a' k5 Q/ K- ~来源：金色财经 |
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