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[lastpost] => 2682846 彭博分析师预计比特币ETF期权将于 2025 年 Q1 推出 1728526620 比推快讯
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比特币的商品属性是美国期货交易监督管理委员会定义的,他们的逻辑也很简单,对比比特币有规范交易以来的走势,的确和美元形成了强烈的逆向走势。我们对照有限的历史图表,可以看到几个有趣的现象:1、美元急行军周期,大约在12个月左右,而比特币也差不多这样的走势。2、2015年到2016年,美元处于高位震荡阶段,比特币处于温和反弹阶段,这是在急行军之后出现的滞涨周期。而这个周期的走势,我认为和未来一段时间有很强的相似之处。如果我们看一下美元的历史走势,其实都是和美国经济的兴衰有着极其重要的联系。目前美国的通胀叠创新高,而美元也成为世界唯一避险工具。很多观点认为,美元会像20年前一样,涨到120附近。不过我倒是有些不同的见解,虽然不一定正确,但大家可以参考。20年前,也就是在亚洲金融危机之后,美国互联网泡沫破裂,全球经济大衰退,美元承载了避险功能。不过今天和20年前,有很多不一样的情况需要注意。首先,20年前,美国属于独霸全球,德国,日本在挑战美国霸主地位失败后,纷纷臣服于美国膝下,看似和今天中美争霸有几分相似之处。不过背后的性质完全不同,因为日本和德国虽然经济发展迅猛,但他们都是二战的失败者,同时也是美国军事庇护之下的国家,严格意义上看,他们没有挑战美国的资本。而中国则不同,中国和美国之间没有隶属关系,美国无法用军事手段施压中国,同时,中国的市场足够大,吸引力足够强,这样让美国想要击败中国,就必须付出沉重代价。所谓伤敌一千自损八百。当然,美国也是采用的这种消耗战策略,希望在自己倒下前,对手先崩溃。不过这里有几个问题,欧洲已经有意识的崛起,虽然目前还不能明目张胆的对抗美国,但欧洲不可能始终做美国的奴隶。所以他们属于坐山观虎斗的策略,希望两败俱伤的时候,从中渔利。第三世界国家虽然不够挑战资格,但作为不定期因子,还是可以的,不要小瞧那些不起眼的国家,其实千里之堤毁于蚁穴的道理,中国祖先早就知晓。其次,如果美国没有了20年前的强大优势,美元也就没有那么重要了,因为大家会考虑更多元化的避险工具,而不是单一押注美元。就像近期黄金的需求不断增加,而数字货币的崛起,其实也是给更多选择的一个尝试。第三,当美国挥舞经济大棒制裁俄罗斯的时候,其他人其实看在眼中,记在心里。要知道今天和美国穿一条裤子的人虽然很多,但他们也深知伴君如伴虎的道理,有些人也吃过美国很多次亏了,那么他们还会相信把钱放在美国是安全的吗?他们还会把美元作为唯一选项吗?如果不是,美元凭什么具有20年前的统治力?第四,中国的崛起,对于美元的主导地位虽然还不能构成威胁,但肯定是动摇了美元的市场霸权,20年前,中国的资本市场还不是开放的,但今天中国加快了资本市场开放的步伐,对于国际资本的吸引也是明显的。而在这个美元加息周期中,中国的A股市场成为众多避险资金的一个选择,一方面是中国的经济政策没有跟随大多数国家一样紧缩,而是继续扩张;另一方面中国目前的通胀较低,A股的市盈率也较低;第三是中国的经济依然保持了一定的活力,而中国政府的统筹能力强,对企业的掌控能力强,可以更好的完成产业升级。这些是美国不具备的优势。综上所述,我认为,美元急行军可能已经结束,接下来有可能像2015到2106年的情况,高位震荡。而A股和比特币,应该迎来反弹周期。 来源:金色财经 |
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