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从ETC历史回顾以太坊潜在分叉的关键是什么
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本文梳理自 dForce 创始人 Yang Mindao在个人社交媒体平台上的观点,BlockBeats 对其整理如下:
对比 16 年 ETC 分叉,结合我个人的经历和观察。 这次明显感觉平静很多。 记得当年 ETC 分叉时最紧张的时候是在矿工大量把算力迁到 ETH,ETC 价格跟随上涨,最高接近 0.3 ETH。 当时还传言以太坊核心开发要集中跳到 ETC。当时 ETH 持币人的心理极其煎熬。
假设你当时是 ETH 持币人,分这几类情形:
a/ 大量投了 TheDAO 的 ETH 的 OG 大户,如果开发者跳船,ETC 变成主链,这部分 100x 的投资基本上就清零,你是否会把手上剩下的 ETH 卖成 ETC,对冲分叉风险,跟随跳船?但如果最终 ETH 还是主链,对冲操作可能会导致损失加大。
b/ 没投 TheDAO 的大户,谁成主链都乐观其成,因为两链你都有同等的币,完全对冲,无压力,这部分人会出来唱 code is law 的道德高标颂歌,支持 ETC,名利双收。
c/ 直接买 ETH 就为了参加 TheDAO 的用户,如果 ETC 成主链,100% 损失,因为 ETC 链他们的 ETH 都被偷了,所以,这些人是支持 ETH 分叉链的铁杆粉。
TheDAO 当时锁了近 13% 的 ETH,参与度当然远高于 13%,我估摸着 60% 以太坊 ICO OG 都参加了。 在最紧张的博弈点,以 Vitalik 领头的核心开发出来宣誓「100% 为 ETH 工作」后,社会共识层面基本上一锤定音(配合着 carbonvote 略有引导性的投票),社会共识落地,ETC(原链)成为少数派,ETH(分叉链)成为合法链。
ETC 分叉留下很多思考,code is law 到底什么意思,算力是否代表投票权,社会共识和算力共识哪个更具有决定性,不可篡改性是否受限于社会共识? 回看现在 PoW/PoS 分叉,和 ETC 分叉有很大区别,现在两者没争夺算力,PoS 链等于是重新投胎,算力在这次共识里没有任何权重,100% 是社会共识支撑 PoS 分叉。
两条链,做人做狗,各走各路,萝卜白菜各有所爱。
简单说,ETH 和 ETC 分叉是派系相争,都希望最大化争取同一选民(算力);
PoW 和 PoS 分叉,更像是新加坡和马来西亚当时的独立。两者社会文化差异极大,马来本就不想一个华人主导的新加坡,踢出去,独立建国,选民基础完全分割。
判断这次 ETHPoW 分叉的可能性,还是那个观点,就如和 ETC 分叉一样,决定性的是交易平台(上次是 Poloniex)。
矿工说自己主导分叉都是给自己脸上贴金,掌握分叉币定价权的不是算力,而是交易平台。
只要有二三线交易平台上币,市场价格会倒逼一线交易平台支持,进一步倒逼其它协议(Lido 等)、平台支持分叉币
最终会形成价格共识,交易量起来进一步螺旋加快其它交易平台支持。 现在各路玩家已把市场氛围烘托地差不多了。
但这次分叉我认为可能会变得平淡无奇,因为 ETC 天花板在那(2.5% ETH 市值),PoW 链估计会在 0.5-2% ETH 这个区间),空间受限。
且资产方、项目方早就投票了。
资产协议(USDC USDT WBTC)会跟 PoS 走,DeFi、CeFi 自然也会跟着 PoS 走,PoW 链充其量当个 EVM 兼容的链。
当然,这场戏还是可以薅羊毛的,这我留下回说吧。
来源:金色财经 |
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