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[lastpost] => 2752227 以太坊 ETF 流入资金达 18.5 亿美元——是比特币的 25 倍!(转) 1753580000 小钱儿
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当前离线
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最近的天气已经飙到30度了,兄弟们,眼瞅着春天来了,咱们盼的牛市没来,反倒二三月份接连踩雷,先是关水问题带崩行情,后是BYBIT交易所被盗ETH,很多人都已经割肉离场。当所有人对市场不抱希望的时候,大盘又偷偷摸摸开始普涨,再度贩卖希望。$ a. f' }# F* d7 P9 U) i
) g- I) S: M5 C. Q4 t: K5 l) _- H8 }昨日波动大一些,我在内部已经讲解的非常清楚,仍然是反弹和反转的故事。目前虽然能看到向好的一面发展的方向,但还不足以走出反转的路线,美联储的货币政策以及川普的关税仍然充满了变数。
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0 p2 R( V+ f+ MBTC 现在仍然是和美股高度相关的,当没有独立利好数据的时候,美股的涨跌很大程度上都会影响 $BTC 价格的变动,但虽然下跌,成交量仍然少的可怜,当然,上涨的时候也是一样,拉出来 Binance 和 Coinbase 的成交量就能看到,现在几乎是最近两年最低的成交量。这也标志着 BTC 又进入到了垃圾时间,而垃圾时间的意思就是小幅震荡。# B* v' ^0 O, e$ N& f
# Q8 g4 _4 I4 W, C+ K从换手的数据来看,短期投资者的换手仍然是主导,但换手率和成交量一样都在下跌,投资者的买卖情绪也是进入垃圾时间的标志。0 P- B' t+ ]5 ^ c% z8 n
F& B7 E% a; k1 G! I3 }4 d5 ~5 t3 }9 R# a
6 i7 c; R7 S: ~* d5 a需要注意的是现在仍然是现在仍然是事件驱动作为震荡的主导,也就是在宏观背景没有改变的情况下,事件是引发涨跌的主要原因。3 e* K$ D6 z( k6 K' R
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思考一下大盘未来整体的方向以及仓位规划:
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- c: J& J* C1 C+ W) G6 l对于BTC:在没有破新低之前,都可以暂时把76606假设为本轮回调的最低点,然后围绕这个思路去规划。
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% |1 b4 @% E" ~' E# H0 t把现在的回调看做是针对57493以来的上涨的回调# h! U5 R4 n3 _1 Y" q5 e
/ _. U4 h! }4 t2 S* J6 Y 1.根据盈利预期以及风险承受能力,在目前的区间逢低建仓多头仓位,至于中间是否做波段,是否来回做,看个人能力而言。3 s, `5 S5 d: D; F6 @
# T- p5 W. a S- m. {/ g 2.博弈的是以76606为最低点,走出一波上涨趋势行情,目标是破前高。
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市场想走大牛市还差点火候,现在适合搞点短线,见好就收别贪心。( d3 K. l& S$ q; p
; X# ~3 A4 B) A: |1 ~8 WETH为什么之前能跑出独立牛市,而现在跑出不独立牛市?& _7 ]+ ~1 j% |$ _& L1 F
) Q4 r K" G8 I# \" E8 F2020年6-7月开始,DIFI开始爆发,E/B汇率初现反转爬坡形态; 2021年3月,在比特币达到顶部区间横盘之际:以太坊社区正在积极讨论EIP-1559(以太坊改进提案),该提案计划在7月的“伦敦硬分叉”中实施。EIP-1559引入了费用燃烧机制,旨在减少ETH的通胀并改善用户体验。这一预期显著提振了市场对ETH的信心;) N3 @* H# H X! D! J6 s
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DeFi和NFT热潮:2021年初,去中心化金融(DeFi)和非同质化代币(NFT)在以太坊网络上迅速崛起。Uniswap、Aave等DeFi项目和CryptoPunks、OpenSea等NFT平台的流行,增加了对ETH的需求; EIP-1550,DEFI,NFT无一不是币圈的重大叙事,叠加下来,ETH实现了从最低点近40倍的涨幅。
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1 T# d9 @/ O) V0 v% \4 x2024-2025年-内生叙事崩塌重构元年,有效内生叙事=0。至于 BNB ,目前还是处于模仿SOLANA的阶段,看不到什么新鲜的东西,SOL都不行了,我想不到任何MEME季在BSC上卷土重来的理由。 - q0 P: P, \ {6 T, f0 j2 B5 p
9 K6 t3 o: z! [3 @/ T1 W; n: h那么思路就相对清晰了,不管是ETH/SOL/BNB还是什么其他的山寨,谁在这个时候能出现真正的有吸引力的东西、产品、叙事、故事;谁就能虹吸整个币圈的山寨流动性。 无人机应用技术:专业代码为460609
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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