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[lastpost] => 2751814 特斯拉在最糟糕的时机抛售了75%的比特币，错失数十亿美元收益（转） 1753396513 九嶷风
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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？
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" |% e+ y& D- v# F/ s以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。: ?& J* r6 p. ^- U5 p f4 h
; l1 ?7 S$ e: j. E6 L* `! U毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。
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要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。* f+ S5 f. T# X$ B5 f1 i
7 G# \) T9 ~: i5 Q1 }9 |第三季度以太坊预测的分歧
$ D1 G; ]& S- V- u! X有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。
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该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。+ T0 o! d/ j: O
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ETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。& j; S4 u% H2 ^# y* Z( m
7 N/ R# |& V; j但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。
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% Z0 u8 _: l* l- R5 U( v# c) j% k随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。, M+ h2 b$ B; v" O
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快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。$ N+ M0 C( k5 f9 H0 x/ g
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因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。6 D0 U$ Q+ ]: R1 I
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但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？
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' _- V, N E6 R' Z+ wETH 奠定了坚实的基础
+ D# J: m1 ?3 ~" ]6 ?4 h9 D8 J/ L以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。
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# R( x2 H7 W+ o9 C至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。* ~2 K: |% Z. e1 j3 p
5 b% D8 g: [& U# L9 U来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。$ v1 T0 m9 u: A" Z# b. F
, r" w. N6 j5 p3 O有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。" z' a# J& i$ G0 h3 a- K/ b
* j* \/ D7 f/ _% q; _- W事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。" Y$ |' l) {. g9 y* W
" I6 B1 L! R0 V- o0 L: R6 ]5 ?& Y" M这种分歧很重要。
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7 N2 x. Z) b8 ~/ f; F5 |将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。& D- X& J. N! C6 s* w5 }
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