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[lastpost] => 2752228 以太坊交易量激增,重新测试关键阻力位,目标锁定 4000 美元(转) 1753580037 小钱儿
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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报:变盘在即,缩表或推动市场走低
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市场观点
1 R, [5 Z; G, k) Q1、宏观流动性 5 N7 i' J& R0 ^9 ^- \
货币流动性整体紧缩。本周美联储公布5月份议息会议纪要,6月及7月预计继续分别加息50基点,并开始缩表。拜登有意取消关税会降低通胀,长期有望减缓加息力度。本轮牛熊与以往最大区别是,华尔街传统资本的参与改变了crypto原有博弈格局,成为短期走势决定性因素。随着这批投机者逐渐离开,crypto走势逐渐与美股有了一定程度的不同步。
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2、链上指标 9 _0 R7 I6 |. o+ h( v6 z1 Q6 `
从链上数据看,总体是大户和长线投资者买入,小户和短线投资者卖出为主。BTC在交易所的库存并没有随着震荡而减少,反而在不断的增加。这部分筹码是破坏平衡的定时炸弹,可能会随着时间而逐渐失去耐性,随时转变为抛压。
7 {; m3 v% `" e) F X& v / Q8 y, @ g0 @! D: P8 }

- {3 b$ @1 j; K4 G) H链上活动保持冷清。链上活动和DeFi代币价格表现之间有很强的相关性,目前DeFi需求在大幅下降,尚未看到趋势的逆转。很多DeFi代币流动性枯竭,基本依靠交易所做市商维护。 L8 w; x$ t! X7 p) [( J

- `8 V9 l0 b5 c( i4 k2 a3、BTC长期市场指标 m; z& e* q w* _/ ^( P
长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。当前指标为0.4,可见目前虽未到历史大底,但依然在低位。
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4、BTC短期市场指标
6 x( R$ ]1 ~- e7 d$ S期货资金费率:维持在0%附近,偏空。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。随着BTC价格下跌,资金费率开始向看空的方向转移,但目前力度并不算大,情绪也不算是坚定。 S9 y9 Y8 e, u# G3 f* v( b) C

% G; f0 l4 o* o/ v `期货多空比:1.4。多空比数据波动较大,参考意义有所削弱。虽然周内市场处于震荡下行的状态,但是很多散户反而觉得是反弹的机会。
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合约持仓量:合约持仓量又有了明显的增长。期权与合约市场数据显示,至少在未来3-6个月内,对进一步下行的恐惧仍然存在。
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- B7 V2 O, g* I; G& O) v, n5、BTC走势分析 - m- T c i% P( B; x6 m
本周BTC在31500-28500的区间窄幅震荡,属于大跌后的修复整理行情。交易流动性继续降低回到一个月前水平,市场所期待的大规模反弹在资金不够充足情况下,只能期待流通量更加枯竭,才有可能在已降低的存量资金下有反弹的出现。BTC长期下行趋势依然没有改变,距离熊市极限底部仍有一定空间。
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6 U0 Z' }8 H( L6 n4 M6、板块涨跌幅Top 100
8 ]8 z% O3 Q6 m% l本周BTC下跌5%,市场继续震荡。BTC的整体市占率提升到46%。复盘17年牛市市值前200个crypto项目,在21年牛市只有5%(例如LINK,DOGE,BNB)跑赢了BTC和ETH,大部分都下跌75%甚至更多。Crypto买新不买旧,熊市里抄底山寨币不是高胜率的投资,因为下一轮牛市总会有新的叙事主角。 + Q( ^8 O; N3 D& E
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市场数据1 x. K/ |0 _0 G; ]
1、公链总锁仓量情况 ' Y# Z$ Q' Q- \/ ]$ d# o

: z; O6 T( w; T& ^. ~2 D+ O$ B& h8 G本周TVL总量下跌5.08B,下跌幅度4.57%,短钱内行情端有继续下跌趋势,TVL在经历大幅下跌后也未见起色,可能会仍伴随大盘加速下跌。
! C! f4 T( n% s2 ^6 W/ W: L( A2 H) H2、各公链TVL占比情况
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本周ETH占比从64.99%下降至63.78%,占比下降1.21%;Tron链占比异军突起,由3.96%上升至5.32%,单周占比上涨1.36%,目前已超越Avalanche排在第三位,下方已新增Tron链协议TVL数据。
* ^! @# I8 |9 f- A( E6 l$ }) \3、各链协议锁仓量情况 8 M/ G8 ^4 N( s5 ]. m7 W
1)ETH锁仓量情况 8 g" r" l" S; \: q
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2)BSC锁仓量情况 2 m- v- \; j# _* N( Q0 Q2 D
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3)Tron锁仓量情况
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4)Solana锁仓量情况
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9 w7 C/ Q) e# `/ C! Y8 C/ x2 t5)Avalanche锁仓量情况 5 n; i3 ]" \ G# A0 h
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6)Polygon锁仓量情况 ( X" }- ^, ~1 b$ L
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7)Fantom锁仓量情况 0 r. F% L8 L9 j# I- T& K9 r( c! r

' [8 q, ]! s3 g# a8)本周协议情况总结 $ L; N) @" X H2 w4 @: i
本周Tron生态出现爆发,其上的官方借贷协议Justlend功不可没,Jusdtlend的TVL已成为排名第三的借贷协议,锁仓金额已达30亿美元,助力Tron生态成为第三公链;其通过TRX铸造成稳定币USDD,由套利机制保证价格锚定1美元,与LUNA不同的是USDD的铸造和TRX的销毁有中心化管制,存款放和借款人与协议进行交互,赚取或支付浮动利率,当前提供USDD的APY为11.59%(由USDD和协议Token组成),借款USDD的APY为7.51%。 1 t- n8 j$ B' P
4、ETH Gas fee历史情况 0 ?" E3 e) `. r: Q7 M
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当前链上转账费用约为$2.73,Uniswap交易费用约为$9.30,Opensea的交易费用约为$10.20,本周内Gas出现缓步提升,每日均值有逐渐增高之势。 - H% `4 |) P& U2 X- }/ B, h
5、NFT市场数据变化 , T$ d0 {- Y& _
NFT指数市值
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NFT市场交易概览
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+ r! ^) U* h. Y ENFT“聪明的钱”购买排序
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4 a% C- h: X* s! h" r# O0 T* k2 B5 r本周NFT市场依旧低迷,值得关注的项目为AIMoonbirds,交易活跃且收到多笔聪明钱的购买,其中包含了一万只AI生成的猫头鹰,画质精美,且重合度极低,当前Opensea地板价0.39ETH。 - Y) ?4 n$ ?" }' q& D

- f, N+ L" R7 V项目最新融资情况& P( _' `7 w5 ? h1 \
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免责声明: Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险,请评估个人风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策。 来源:金色财经 |
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