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[lastpost] => 2769086 万众瞩目的Plasma今晚上线，能否改变链上支付格局？（转） 1758834869 caoch
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
( N% z+ a1 w0 B0 ]8 e6 e余勋也不例外、 ( D% ~4 @$ [) ~' z V
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 / c0 [3 E/ A I8 Q
是保经济的重要决策！
/ D0 e- a( I r( O1 d1 F2 g这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 7 B _6 n0 _, t! L: T
低点26700-32400、
7 S8 W, l! b1 j! N反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
+ o! Z) ]3 \5 g但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
6 ]7 z8 P8 p" I( G大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 - t F/ W3 F$ G% G' m
涨幅就已回撤过半！ # G0 T8 T/ R; [" G o0 g; I
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
# h) K0 ^; X1 g7 y+ E) L0 V) i不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
E" r4 I$ l, ]- Y, B2 L/ r" l其次、 : B2 d6 I- c8 p0 T
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 8 O3 W2 G' y& }: z( R
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 6 m h! i6 X0 r4 ]/ r$ q
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ! p5 G0 [! a! `7 S* V% _
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
( q) b u2 X- y( F但回到币圈、 " m- K1 e# N% X; T5 K
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
' ^/ \( k7 K0 @" V5 G在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
4 h& E' e7 y1 s$ Y" N5 R/ D而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
( e4 D, F* o( \4 V个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
/ V- P% B8 g& Q* [( H缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 ; [1 b7 C1 g: E) E, X# X
对当前的底部、影响有限。
+ Z$ G9 v, V2 A$ H! q& |7 g最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 1 g3 i8 \. k( s. l- E
所以27000、即是
9 O/ A/ Z$ P+ v8 m4 z4 y3 ~6 X* T去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
g. e$ u: f* M5 d- c/ L, E+ T同时还是去年放水初期低点、 . m* d8 |* D, I% a* }
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 ! A4 o: h# K. ?& U
由此得出的结论是、
2 C+ B3 u& D3 a+ Y/ u: Q加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
# y; W4 o5 d O. @* Z! k1 q点位不会出现太大偏离。
9 U4 b/ H) }8 F; X$ _$ R综合以上、 0 A/ [4 p$ l' ^& e4 M1 K
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 5 O& m! E8 I* f c$ ?
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 # m. ~, o) f; z( O; h& X; F
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 1 ]0 {+ D5 ~% ~
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 / D. D4 ^0 q6 D7 t
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
& N9 l! ^( a1 \& k7 {4 H; Z即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
/ i+ _9 Q) l$ F% S9 B9 s7 b5 L美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
/ Y2 [5 i) q7 p% h3 k夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 9 b, C' H5 T$ E% v* n
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
& O' O/ r, `* F$ q* o逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
9 r1 X) Y' M) [. ]6 f: C# |3 f高空需至31700-32000间布局、 # p) w+ [4 s( V! i3 s! M( C
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
: |8 _5 q$ M; K* ?* V8 ?得不偿失。
" O: R6 r. u7 y) N. i0 z3 A* u; g" U来源：金色财经 |
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