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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
9 c! s" D( v( z& N7 Z( i; w0 n& U* }6 C) d$ _- B4 E
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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* |9 o7 \- j8 P) e其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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8 |" A: J2 g; Y1 k5 J5 i1 u/ A首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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9 {, f( e# D% `9 C) H请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。1 |% Y, F, ?' q# h% l$ _* T
( y- x7 ~$ r8 N/ x) X9 q. {答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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; r9 A9 a: R9 k. g例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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7 U; e9 R2 i" w现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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& C% l7 G+ ^4 X2 E# d7 T我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!& m R/ _# o, m" s
- Q7 l3 m) a8 i- ]; K5 L n玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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% b: z/ D& C/ D" O这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。. O9 ^0 X: ^% K0 p: g
8 L5 N3 {5 f* _) k1 d
接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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- |2 y' j c" q/ T- ]7 w玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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% B1 f, J* X7 b8 p+ t' J再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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, M/ l5 @8 d* ?0 @+ z0 o7 i' ~3 k" G3 s但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。+ Y) i3 X0 a9 N, h8 j. }
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下注比例 本金结果
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7 G$ k! K4 W/ k! x/ J0.1% 1.001902
, f# U5 W6 \+ ]! p6 l! y" ~* f7 A/ ]* |
0.2% 1.003606
% c! Y4 A5 C Y2 l1 g) v9 I! I
# D/ W$ W( V n! F, {' ~0 ?0.3% 1.005113
* M! }1 J% j& r, ~$ e5 u- F( H( v4 |, l+ s6 m% D1 c0 ]
0.4% 1.0064217 K3 m( y Y, h# n, L
9 K4 y7 _7 }3 k. s0.5% 1.007528
. q* l7 z3 B) y8 a% T! N- }( F; t
0.6% 1.008435
# R) }) p% n' S* V: s2 {) n) `7 J3 I2 R% r1 U0 Q- A! T
0.7% 1.009142
3 K0 D) w# D5 q" [5 T3 d
/ _/ w3 F- a1 \- @ v0.8% 1.0096466 G S7 O6 Q8 K2 _+ n9 M% h8 h
* V$ Z! f3 `( ? T9 U# _; M
0.9% 1.009949) h3 ~/ V7 P& `- \. `' e. R
U: d2 ~1 G/ K' \6 [5 W1.0% 1.01005
8 u, a, j: Y% x2 u) \0 |& ?& @& K- \! o+ L; Z; y: i) l
1.1% 1.009949
* ?( W/ j0 }& g7 n$ ?) X% q, m
6 P7 v! e9 g0 T! C9 v# \1.2% 1.009646
3 ]3 g1 E4 V; ?/ D3 K' S' n! i. r2 x4 `# r! P, C) R4 v }
1.3% 1.009142
7 f+ w B2 V" ^6 p3 Y0 t* W) l* C5 `* C7 E; _+ c7 ~& k
1.4% 1.008435
2 _& w& w" }* h9 u0 U% w0 T
3 w% p: s$ N1 V$ r1.5% 1.007528
# x- c' v1 T' a! G; W1 M
7 u+ I- z2 O( Y4 X, m N1.6% 1.00642; c% I5 Q' j! f0 Y4 \$ u K7 Y. U2 g
( d* o1 d' X2 U4 A" j0 b4 E* ]
1.7% 1.0051124 y+ I9 {7 m0 I2 D: U$ n) x
+ {: O+ u& @, m2 b1.8% 1.003605
5 S+ C$ M& S0 u) Z' _# `1 y0 {8 j# l$ @8 L
1.9% 1.0019
- l+ W2 ^3 J% M% |6 B
8 j0 g& {+ H0 E7 ~" U, E7 g2.0% 0.9999977 \8 [/ [. W0 f, D$ `8 b
, Z1 x& q, j8 m2.1% 0.997899
. J" R U( w' [- w6 T2 b5 X) t! f
2.2% 0.995605
5 S- N& |7 W4 @. C" n
5 `1 f2 J" }6 ]0 D0 j G# h$ k2.3% 0.993118
3 u( ^5 I* j2 x) `/ r; T
) c! d; N7 X& T1 j2.4% 0.990439
8 [% {- A( l& d- k% V6 t: M9 y0 p w6 b( Q# F1 P
2.5% 0.987569( i$ @( E5 |0 {3 x% b$ o" S
) n4 g4 n' ^! m/ U2.6% 0.98451" r) f9 U9 l, U! Y
6 t8 W: x8 H! C; E/ R
2.7% 0.981264; d4 n5 O& \0 t5 ~
3 L( w6 S7 g; ^' b2.8% 0.977833) Q+ S* l. l4 p% f6 G( M
: E6 Y5 O' }% C+ D3 @, h4 s/ O1 W- P2.9% 0.974219
0 ?' }. A7 G$ Y9 M6 r2 e$ r
5 Q5 P; c; M7 A+ E3.0% 0.970424" q: q1 k+ ]) _+ T
5 ^9 ^" [" @' d2 l
从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
# i( l1 l$ h8 |& l0 Y; b
8 `/ p% w# {4 n4 a8 z5 q2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!8 r( ?0 b+ u4 n+ u' i2 P0 Z# V0 e
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈) G, I9 B# ^+ @7 _2 C
" p, A( J+ L1 n) J3 b凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...; o: N9 V8 g% |6 I8 `
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。. x: `6 ]0 w: k1 u1 A
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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