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[虚拟币交流]
比特币涨到40万美元还是2万美元?为什么分析师不能就BTC的未来达成一致(转)
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加密货币市场正在经历低迷,顶级玩家比特币和以太坊在过去24小时内下跌了5%以上。3 h' }% j4 Y" Z4 X8 W+ X7 x
3 G/ P+ |" |( B+ h9 v4 R在3月中旬达到7.5万美元的历史新高后,最近的下跌引发了投资者的兴趣。有趣的是,领先的加密货币在过去三个月里下跌了大约20%。 N" p+ G- |! c1 K) x
8 |5 P7 T8 Z9 a7 g* }尽管如此,投资者对比特币的热情依然存在。
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( E5 S: ]0 P8 V' c* m忽略短期噪音( `) _0 T& P6 q
交易员表示,这些波动是短期的,并将下跌视为市场的“常规调整”。
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7 L; f1 L% e! z4 G" p' [3 y3 fAMBCrypto对储备风险指标的分析进一步证实了这一点。
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/ Y$ V$ p5 N$ b5 j. U f' ^2 F这张图表评估了长期比特币投资者对价格的信心。在撰写本文时,储备风险为0.002,表明BTC持有人的信心。
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随着最近价格的下跌,这可能预示着在可能上涨至70000美元之前开始积累,从而使看跌头寸处于不利地位。
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, _: I+ ^ }" Y阿波罗的联合创始人托马斯·法勒也表达了类似的观点,他说:,) L7 O6 X% I/ f4 j8 o
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“价格可能会降至4万美元,但可能会升至40万美元。这就是事实,这是一个很好的赌注。”. ~1 \9 o7 u. M2 b8 W" R4 G- R2 J
Raoul Pal将其与BTC目前的价格及其最近的历史新高(ATH)进行了比较,他补充道,; \; X/ Q% D: ]( a7 e) M( C
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“这是BTC在12个月内第四次修正20%……很普通。”
+ i% ]5 F2 L z$ b* |批评家就是批评家
% k1 I- x, R- ?& H9 a然而,像彼得·希夫这样的怀疑论者对比特币的前景持悲观态度,预计比特币将回归2万美元。. G2 M) f( s) l K3 t' O, I6 t
1 d1 ? ^2 x) H. ?0 A: ?加密货币分析师Rekt Capital指出,. Q1 R. s3 f$ U ^4 |9 ^$ F
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“比特币越来越接近其最终底部,每多下跌1%。”: N" W& h @+ n, g# d
尽管受到批评,加密货币交易所BitMEX的前首席执行官Arthur Hayes在其最近的文章《左曲线》中认为,BTC最近的下跌提供了一个买入机会。他说,
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“这是利用最近加密货币下跌缓慢增加头寸的最佳时机。”
+ [% e5 j$ C: h2 z' h# N9 d- u此外,Hayes强调,在实际收益率为负的时期,比特币是一种替代投资,可以对冲法定货币贬值。" z+ _- v: b3 F5 _% M$ K0 ~6 R
7 V+ N; }& J% M9 L总而言之,这些交易所表明,尽管经历了过山车般的旅程,但比特币的长期前景看起来很有希望。
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