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比特币在特朗普关税威胁下遭遇重挫，曾经的"特朗普交易"热点正经历严峻考验。9 ]; z: l5 {% B- d
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28日，比特币单日暴跌高达7.3%，跌至自去年11月以来的最低点，较历史高点下跌 25%。整个2月，比特币已下跌超过20%。若这一跌势持续到月底，将创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。
$ U V* F2 F5 S" o: z/ ^0 d9 x$ V5 u" _, X, |
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此次暴跌并非比特币独自承受，以太坊、Polkadot和XRP等其他主要加密货币同日均下跌超过7%，显示出加密市场的普遍恐慌情绪。BTC Markets Pty Ltd的首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示：1 u2 C& p7 A$ T$ ]
, B6 ?9 p9 Q1 m% W" q"上一次我们看到类似情绪还是在2022年的'加密寒冬'期间。这次暴跌可以视为对特朗普关税和地缘ZZ不确定性等宏观忧虑的直接反应。"9 R) W7 k# m: t! k' T5 z1 d# f
Z% [+ f9 q/ v"特朗普交易"幻灭：加密资产从狂欢到挫折
; @) V) F! D& H据央视新闻，特朗普于2月27日宣布，从3月4日起将对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税。这一消息打击了市场此前对特朗普可能改变贸易政策路线的期望。& X% m4 l9 w5 S3 W" A$ b
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贸易紧张局势导致28日全球市场普遍出现避险情绪，亚洲股市几乎全线下跌，欧洲期货也出现下滑。但作为对风险情绪变化极为敏感的资产，加密货币成为受打击最严重的投资品类之一。" x3 q2 n) q9 ]& R' v: S, t; F
% ]* s% G' O. I/ H3 H6 j比特币的暴跌凸显了市场情绪的急剧转变。曾经，买入比特币是最受欢迎的"特朗普交易"之一，投资者期望特朗普亲加密货币的政策立场将推动市场大幅上涨。加密托管公司Bitgo Inc亚太地区场外交易总监Stefan von Haenisch表示：* I2 L5 w1 V! v! P4 M0 |: O2 w: W. E
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"考虑到当前宏观环境，我们现在的处境并不令人意外。"
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0 t' U O) C8 l他补充说，交易员仍在等待特朗普为该行业提出具体措施，包括比特币储备计划。( m. o4 H& H+ W, U, R5 p# E
4 w' W) [( _/ T, E& h1 F# w( [2 x市场前景：技术支撑与投资者撤资
4 q* N9 J# V; i" P2 i! \投资者现在被迫思考世界上最大的加密货币可能会跌至何处。加密平台YouHodler的市场主管Ruslan Lienkha通过技术分析指出，比特币在70000美元附近有支撑位，但他表示投资者不应假设比特币崩盘会那么严重。Lienkha指出：- ?, j+ _6 T k
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"只有在股票市场负面情绪主导的情况下，我们才会看到这一价位。"
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负面情绪本周也冲击了现货美国比特币ETF，周二投资者净流出超过10亿美元，创下这些产品自去年推出以来的最大单日流出。
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尽管市场遭遇挫折，特朗普已经做出一些令加密货币支持者欣喜的改变，包括在关键职位安排加密货币支持者。此前在前任主席Gary Gensler领导下对加密行业进行多年打击的美国证券交易委员会，近几周来已关闭了对几家加密机构的调查。
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特朗普曾表示，他希望将美国打造成"地球的加密货币之都和世界比特币超级大国"。然而，市场目前的表现表明，实现这一愿景可能比预期更具挑战性。5 V3 ?& Q3 Y& w8 G5 g% r$ u
" ^* j7 m# G5 k; \根据彭博社策略师Mark Cudmore的观点，真正的恐慌可能还未到来。他警告说：& e) ]' G V$ |# L. g
* E+ G8 ~, T1 h2 U; w( S+ `! p"比特币未来总会经历另一次70%以上的崩盘，这是其固有特性。72000-74000美元区间可能是触发下一个加密寒冬的技术临界点。"" g2 m# H2 M# {3 K/ w5 [: u
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