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[lastpost] => 2756847 比特币再次创造新高了啊,又要奔向13万美元了吗? 1755613094 爬格子的瘦书生
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7216 小时
本月在线: 15 小时
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你知道吗? Coinbase Custody(而非贝莱德)持有 IBIT 中 BTC 的私钥,将客户资产安全地离线存储,并由商业保险提供支持。- G# p* ?8 J' ]: Q
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2.为什么贝莱德在 2025 年大举押注比特币?. \: y l* ^( E" i9 o# t$ r: R
贝莱德的大规模配置背后,是其战略视角的转变:它已将比特币视为长期、多元化投资组合中的合法组成部分。
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贝莱德的比特币战略
1 }0 S' V) d0 |! D! o9 Z9 f+ e9 P贝莱德的内部论点是:接受比特币的波动性,换取其潜在的上行空间。通过 IBIT(iShares Bitcoin Trust),他们押注更广泛的采用将逐步稳定这一资产,改善价格发现、提升流动性并缩小买卖价差。
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在他们看来,比特币是对货币演化与数字资产基础设施的长期押注。这种来自全球最大资产管理公司的理念,向同行释放了强烈信号。它将机构对比特币的讨论从“是否要参与”转变为“应该配置多少”。
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9 O/ c/ R4 |( |机构积累比特币的投资逻辑( v" O% U' ~" Z! E! M" N% F8 B* S
贝莱德在 2025 年看好比特币的几个关键因素:
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( W) [4 B3 Q. H稀缺性设计:比特币总量上限 2100 万枚,且通过减半机制控制增发,稀缺性与黄金相似,但背靠数字架构。部分估计显示,大量现有比特币已遗失或无法取用,使得实际可流通供应更为紧张。
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美元霸权的替代品:在主权债务膨胀与地缘ZZ碎片化的背景下,比特币的去中心化特性提供了对法币风险的对冲。它被定位为一种中立的储备资产,抵御ZF过度干预与货币操纵。
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数字化转型的一部分:贝莱德将比特币视为宏观趋势的代理指标——从“线下”到“线上”价值体系的转变,涵盖金融、商业乃至财富代际转移。他们认为这一趋势受到人口结构的“超级驱动”,尤其是年轻投资者影响力的上升。: U/ `4 I) K- w* @7 \. p
" T/ L' A" b) C' W) e( z* p/ s这些因素组合起来,使比特币拥有传统资产类别无法复制的风险收益特征。贝莱德的表述是:比特币提供“额外的多元化来源”,为其进入主流投资组合提供了有力论据。
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贝莱德的加密投资组合整合
( Q0 i* X8 K0 S/ x& y! l0 }贝莱德主张采取审慎策略:在传统 60/40 股债组合中配置 1%~2% 的比特币。听起来比例不大,但对机构级投资组合而言,足以产生影响,并让保守的资金分配者逐渐接受比特币。- X& N! x8 U# h
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他们还将比特币的风险画像与高波动科技股(如“七巨头”)作比较,以展示其在标准投资模型中的合理位置。
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( W! ?+ A- x" L$ x有趣的是,IBIT 内部比特币交易过程中产生的意外副产品(“尘埃”)里,包含了少量其他代币。贝莱德通常会将这些代币单独存放,或捐赠给慈善机构,以避免税务复杂性。
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+ m* A8 Y+ _3 X1 S6 @" f/ [0 q3.比特币 ETF 的市场影响% k' W0 u, L1 o& s$ h
贝莱德通过 IBIT 持有超过 3% 的比特币总供应量,这成为比特币在认知、交易与监管层面上的转折点。$ k X- s3 m" s
5 [; }8 W8 T5 Q8 o4 e/ k# G3 F比特币历来因波动性著称,这源于固定供应、情绪波动和监管不确定性。过去,因市场流动性较薄,大额交易往往造成剧烈冲击。而随着 IBIT 吸收数十万枚 BTC,问题在于机构资本究竟会稳定市场,还是会进一步加剧市场复杂化。7 H# o: {3 d6 S" F6 [
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ETF 模式的支持者认为,机构投资有助于降低波动性。像贝莱德这样的受监管机构参与后,比特币将变得更具流动性、更透明、更能抵御异常波动。/ f& X) a3 \7 A
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贝莱德也明确表示,更广泛的参与能改善价格发现、加深市场流动性,并最终促成更稳定的交易环境。 |2 c, q! a n7 O) f5 r( G
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但批评者(包括部分学者)警告,大规模机构参与会将传统市场风险带入比特币:如杠杆交易、算法触发的闪崩,以及通过 ETF 流量进行的价格操控。% d( Q/ x1 }# q1 F5 V
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换句话说,比特币的金融化可能是用另一种波动(系统性、杠杆驱动风险)替代了原本的散户驱动 FOMO。而且,随着 ETF 影响力增加,比特币可能与其他金融资产的相关性增强,削弱其“非相关性对冲”的价值。
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13269 小时
本月在线: 56 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19156 小时
本月在线: 77 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 18148 小时
本月在线: 26 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 99 小时
本月在线: 11 小时
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贝莱德这下是真敢下注,看来对比特币的信心不是闹着玩的。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10208 小时
本月在线: 34 小时
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