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[lastpost] => 2752202 别被“纸黄金（ETF）”骗了！清崎再次发声：危机来时，照片里的枪开不了火！ 1753895355 天策-瑶娥
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今日凌晨，“万众瞩目”的Optimism正式开放了其原生代币 OP 的空投申领。
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: J* v2 N" y7 M9 J作为“Layer2四大天王”中首个发币的项目，市场对于 Optimism 一直都给予着非常高的预期，依照与其他 Layer1 项目的估值对比，OP 在流通之前就已经被一些 KOL 喊到了 10 美元甚至 20 美元的高价，场外价格也被叫到了 3 - 5 美元。 * W" N+ H% n' d% e
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然而，故事却并没有按照市场情绪设定好的剧本去演 —— OP 自流通之后价格一路下行，截至发文时，于欧易 OKX 暂报 1.93USDT。
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那么，故事究竟是如何演砸的呢？综合晚间的事件发展情况，我们认为这是一场相当糟糕的 marketing 策略失败。 具体来说，失败之处有三。 * s0 j/ z" u1 k7 ^4 Q$ B: m
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其一是科学家抢跑，由于Optimism早在数日前就已公开测试了代币合约，因此在空投申领的前端正式开放之前，已有不少科学家绕过前端直接与合约进行了交互，率先拿到了空投并在价格预计较高时抛售。 1 g* ~3 |5 I5 f( }; P' u+ Z( e
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其二则是针对访问压力的准备不足，由于空投申领的开放，Optimism 短时间内迎来了访问流量高峰，高负载导致 Optimism 主网和远程过程调用（RPC）出现严重延迟，致使大部分普通用户至今仍无法顺利通过前端完成申领，只能看着币价一步步走低，情绪上也变成着“早领，早跑，早解脱”。 : d+ F8 j) M- Y. c( x! B5 c! B
5 ~3 A+ v' s1 O! m" d2 m Z再加之 Optimism 作为 Layer2 本身主打的就是扩容概念，因此主网的延迟造成的负面影响只会比想象的更为严重，一些沮丧的用户甚至发出了“要你这 Layer2 有啥用”的质疑。不过，需要说明的是这里的延迟更多是 RPC 超载的原因，与实际网络性能关系倒没那么大。
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其三则是传说中“5000 万美元流动性池”期望的落空，在此前的测试中，Optimism 曾向 OP 的流动性池投入了 5000 万美元的USDC，因当时在池子里还有 2000 万的 OP，市场一度解读为 OP 的开盘价格会是 2.5 美元。
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然后，在测试之后 Optimism 撤出了这 5000 万 USDC，待 OP 正式流通之后，也没有再行添加流动资金做市，截至 10:30，Uniswap内的 OP/USDC 流动性池规模“仅”为 78 万美元。虽然 Optimism 从未承诺过会拿出这 5000 万 USDC，但这一举动难免会造成市场的预期情绪落空，打击投资者信心。 9 z! B4 J7 o( _9 o/ q% J# O& G7 h
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( d; P3 y0 X$ j. ~受上述多件“事故”的综合影响，市场对于 OP 的预期也一路下行，甚至开始逐渐走向 FUD，最终让这场本该属于 Optimism 的狂欢走向了截然不同的方向。 * q {5 _# k4 |1 ]3 r1 G, u3 K
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当然了，这只是 OP 流通后这几个小时内的故事，由于币安等尚未开放 OP 的交易，因此 OP 市场价格后续会如何走仍未可知，再退一步说，在当前的大环境之下，早期少部分人对于 OP 的过高估值是否合理也有待商榷。只不过，就今天开场的情况来看，很难给 Optimism 的表现打一个及格分。 - Y% u- X3 Z& n" i3 G4 |* d# \ U/ x
5 l) z$ c& T+ ?3 [# l来源：金色财经 |
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