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外部环境都是暂时的,现在的大逻辑是熊市正在发生,每次的上涨也是熊市的正常波动,从1.8w到这一波的2.4w,一个半月过去了,只有两波机会,且持续性都很短,所以不具备反转的条件,同时无论多空,想赚一点都是非常困难的事情,虽然目前的位置还在日线反弹行情中,离支撑位置还有百分之十的空间,但是我认为都是消耗时间的折磨走势,小规模的起起伏伏,让大家忍不住,去犯错。
经济环境不支持走牛大涨,即便寻求避险资金庞大,数字货币也不是避险首选;外部格局不支持过大空间的涨幅,不确定性持续增大,持币观望情绪浓厚;场内外资金不支持向上的异动,没有迹象表明增量资金已经入场再布局;链上数据不支持暴涨行情,七月份巨鲸地址一共减持了超过七万枚大饼。这些感受都是真实在发生的。
我们经常用到的数据网站Glassnode在行情不好的日子里过的也不行,它的数据虽然有延迟,但是总体来讲还是可信的不过需要一些自己的分析结论,数据是不会给出结果的,所以,数据可以看,结论要自己判断,这个时候,链glassnode都开始坐不住了,有意无意的宣扬目前就是底部了,我认为,1.8w必破,所以现在不是底部,用一个月的眼光来看,可能是,但是拉长一年来看,就未必是了。
有几个比较重要的数据我总结出来的和glassnode是不同的,大家可以参考。
第一.2w的位置确实有很多购买者入场,但这些都是投机者,也就是短期持有者,并且这部分筹码在现阶段买卖极度活跃。卖出的筹码基本上集中在五万上方和六万上方,也就是割肉走掉了。目前还在强撑的筹码集中在3w和4w区间。随着熊市的持续又或者急跌发生,这部分筹码就会加剧大饼再下一个台阶,也就是1.8w下方。
第二.以前熊市低位背离的持续时间在248天到575天之间。在目前的周期中,它只持续了17天,时间相对较短。大规模的上攻又或者说一倍以上的涨幅至少需要六个月以上的时间。
从1.8w反弹到现在,由于价格的反弹的幅度较小,所有投资者类别的盈利能力都很差。长期持有者群体也不例外,他们的卖出模式表明,在5月到6月期间,已经发生了不小的卖出离场,在过去的一个月里,这种卖出还在持续发生着。短期内的势头表明反弹趋势仍在继续,但是空间极其有限。从长期来看,最大最急的跌幅时期已经结束了,但是时间更长,价格缓跌的日子还会持续很长时间,市场回暖也会需要很久很久。 来源:金色财经 |
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