×
Array
(
[fid] => 6980
[description] =>
[password] =>
[icon] =>
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 75
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6980
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6845,6879,1121,6980
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 4
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6980
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
)
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 4
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6980
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[status] => 1
[required] => 0
[listable] => 0
[types] => Array
(
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] =>
[postperm] =>
[replyperm] =>
[getattachperm] =>
[postattachperm] =>
[postimageperm] =>
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:0:"";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6974
[type] => sub
[name] => 币圈资讯
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 0
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 49587
[posts] => 49655
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 62
[oldrank] => 60
[lastpost] => 2682846 彭博分析师预计比特币ETF期权将于 2025 年 Q1 推出 1728526620 比推快讯
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 0
[jammer] => 0
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 0
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
研究:矿工数据显示 比特币可能已经触底
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
【我是Stary小谢,了解更多请关注我。】此篇文章偏技术性,请仔细阅读。
哈希带指标、矿工余额、矿难度和 Puell Multiple 都表明比特币触底并可能正在复苏。
抓住令人垂涎的比特币底部需要分析的不仅仅是它的价格。历史上,最可靠的市场底部指标之一是矿工数据。通常被认为是加密生态系统中最具弹性的参与者之一,矿工只有在比特币变得太昂贵而无法开踩时才会投降。
哈希带是一种独特的指标,用于确定市场当前是处于熊市还是牛市阶段。该指标包含比特币哈希率的 30 天和 60 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)。30 日均线跌破 60 日均线表明熊市的开始,表明矿商已经开始投降。
数据显示,市场已经连续近 60 天处于矿工投降模式。一旦 30 天 SMA 超过 60 天 SMA,矿工投降的情况就会结束。然而,连续数日静止不动的移动平均线之间的差异使得我们很难确定何时可以看到趋势逆转。
2022 年比特币的哈希带指标
然而,分析矿工余额表明,最糟糕的时期已经过去,矿工已经开始复苏。矿工余额查看属于矿工的地址中的总供应量,以确定他们是否一直在出售资产。根据Glassnode的数据,矿工余额从 6 月份的低点回升,是自 2017 年 10 月以来的最高点(以红色突出显示)。
除了余额恢复外,我们还看到从交易所流出的矿工资金短暂超过了流入交易所地址的资金(以黑色突出显示)。这表明,更多的矿工从交易所提取他们的 BTC,而不是他们存入市场出售的 BTC。
2022 年比特币的挖矿难度
最后,另一个可靠的市场底部指标似乎也在闪烁红色。Puell 倍数是用于确定矿概率的指标,通过计算每日发币量与每日发币价值的 365 天移动平均值的比率来确定。当 Puell 倍数较低时,表明矿工的盈利能力低于年度平均水平。当该指标高时,矿工的盈利能力就高,并激励矿工清算他们的国债。
Puell倍数以良好的准确度标记了之前的周期底部——它在 2011 年 11 月、2015 年 1 月、2018 年 11 月和 2020 年 5 月闪现了底部信号。数据显示,Puell 自那时以来首次离开绿色区域六月,正在缓慢而稳定地攀登。尽管该指标在之前的市场周期中进出绿色区域,但前景仍然乐观。
比特币 Puell 多项指标的图表
【 |
|
|
|
|
|
|