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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格分析：在6.9万美元被拒绝后，BTC获得新ATH的机会有多大？（转）
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在最近的牛市中，比特币的价格尚未达到历史新高，因为卖家正在捍卫他们的最后一道防线。
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技术分析+ _2 O- ?: N- `9 C1 y- @
By埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）1 e3 V2 _6 L3 p7 b: L
% Z w& R6 q0 _/ {6 ?
每日图表
! q" L% A( D# y( U9 u' ]4 |在日线图上，该资产最近反弹至6.4万美元水平和200天移动平均线之上，位于同一区域附近。这一上升趋势大大提高了比特币很快创下历史新高的可能性。* H/ V3 d1 D, c5 R% D
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然而，卖家很好地捍卫了6.9万美元的阻力位，因为价格正在下跌。如果出现大幅回调，可以重新测试200天移动平均线。, |# X1 O5 `; x. b9 H# S. Q' {
, V/ z$ K+ R8 s; T' r2 c4小时图表9 E/ |7 u7 a5 b1 }9 a+ G
基于价格走势和动量分析，4小时图显示了明显的看跌信号。市场最近在6.9万美元的关键阻力区形成了一个上升的楔形。然而，RSI与最近的价格高点显示出明显的看跌背离。
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这导致了模式的崩溃，这是一个典型的看跌反转信号。RSI也显示低于50%的值，这表明动量在4小时内看跌。然而，由于整体市场结构仍然看涨，这一举措很可能只是暂时的调整。
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情绪分析
- d/ v" {3 `0 w4 C* d5 @By埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）) f6 c$ [4 C: h, Y; |
+ ^2 L2 h3 E) I% Q8 o
比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（叠加）
" C' e" E0 i3 S4 m9 o- g在比特币最近的价格上涨中，投资者越来越乐观地认为，不久将出现新的历史新高和长期反弹。然而，这种乐观情绪有可能导致市场下跌。
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此图表显示了比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（堆叠），它衡量了未平仓期权头寸的数量，包括看涨期权和看跌期权。显然，与牛市早期和接近市场底部的水平相比，期权未平仓合约（OI）总额显著下降，在牛市早期和市场底部，看涨期权和看跌期权都堆积得更重。( H# V1 W4 K" d$ d
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OI的下降表明，投资者对比特币价格走势的不确定性减少了，导致他们采取了更具方向性的头寸，减少了通过期权进行对冲的需要。与此同时，对芝加哥商品交易所期货的开放兴趣日益增加，表明投资者对这一趋势越来越有信心，愿意采取更多杠杆头寸并承担更大的风险。不用说，杠杆是一把双刃剑。" g* l. F! i/ J
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