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[lastpost] => 2749978 加密里程碑，三大加密法案通过对加密行业有何影响？（转） 1752768197 mxsj2016k
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当前离线
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的0 O* t/ S+ K0 y/ g) A) q) G
比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要/ \' g! x o! k. |# ?4 F. j/ {
短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。9 u9 y! Z3 {0 p4 _; ^% Y+ F# D
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比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内( Z+ }; t- I; p5 [3 g- H( H
实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。$ k0 k! Z, b# y! N* x
i0 d; |) _5 ?$ n2 S/ z% }- S然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。) J3 O( W# s% A: w& e2 Z7 p: G) y$ `2 s
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STH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。
# ?. l: \; d4 k3 | P$ H, w4 A* h
! s% s, {, n) S尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。# ]# p4 W( e/ F$ f4 h; Q
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这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
4 n% F# X' L! T. ~: t2 e( }+ Z: f6 [. U, Q3 q
比特币价格结构和风险区域- D* K G& S7 R- ^( s% s
发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。
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' a" b, d1 Y, r( u) ]这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。* {7 f8 E: c- [0 R4 Z
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布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。6 L8 X- a9 j$ g7 A" V5 u
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但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。7 s% V* M J, T5 C2 D J" Q/ v
# @3 F/ Y( H: Y" x2 Z" ~
这对比特币趋势意味着什么
9 n9 l8 f8 z) q2 w8 M0 v: I( b3 E未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。% Q, H1 A, J3 i" P) v
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如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。
9 m! b5 ^+ {0 b! W$ |' O, ?, i ~, N3 T* J+ _- t: e: \2 Z
总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。
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