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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊严重低估信号闪现 CryptoQuant预测ETH/BTC或将迎来38%强势反弹(转）
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根据链上分析机构 CryptoQuant 的最新数据，以太坊（ETH）有望对比特币（BTC）展开强势反攻，酝酿一轮关键性逆转行情。6 N4 H+ F0 _0 Y
以太坊（ETH）正在酝酿对比特币（BTC）的新一轮超额表现周期，背后是历史规律、买盘回暖以及抛压减弱等多重信号交汇。加密圈内普遍将此视为“山寨币季节”（Alt Season）的前兆。 CryptoQuant报告显示，代表ETH相对BTC强弱的关键指标——ETH/BTC价格比率，在触及自2020年1月以来的最低点后，一周内反弹了38%。 从历史来看，这一低位通常意味着ETH的阶段性底部已现，并常常成为山寨币集体爆发的起点。CryptoQuant进一步指出，按照ETH/BTC的MVRV指标来看，以太坊目前已进入“极度低估区”，这是自2019年以来首次出现的现象。 类似的技术与链上结构也曾出现在2017年、2018年和2019年，随后都出现了ETH强劲反弹并跑赢BTC的“均值回归”行情。 当前ETH的回升趋势背后，还受到市场行为的变化支撑 —— 交易员和投资者正加速增持ETH头寸，资金持续向ETH倾斜。 ETH/BTC 现货交易量占比飙升ETH/BTC 现货交易量比率飙升至 0.89，创下自 2024 年 8 月以来的最高水平。该指标与 2019 年至 2021 年期间观察到的类似趋势相呼应，当时 ETH 的表现超过了比特币四倍。
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' V) t2 l+ m7 _0 {机构资金流也开始偏向以太坊。CryptoQuant 指出，自 4 月底以来，ETH 相对于 BTC 的 ETF 持仓比率大幅上升。 这表明基金管理人正在加大对以太坊的配置力度，可能是出于对市场走势看多的判断，例如近期的扩容进展或更有利于 ETH 的宏观预期。 资金流数据显示 ETH 多头信号根据 CryptoQuant 数据，交易所资金流动情况再次释放出 ETH 的利好信号。ETH/BTC 的交易所流入比率已降至自 2020 年以来的最低水平，表明将 ETH 打入交易所准备卖出的用户减少。相比之下，比特币正面临相对更大的抛压。 CryptoQuant 的数据描绘出一个画面：ETH 的卖压减轻，需求上升，同时相对估值仍处于低位。如果历史走势重演，ETH 可能正处于重新夺回对 BTC 主导地位的边缘，并有望引领更广泛的山寨币市场迈入新一轮上涨周期。
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