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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格预测：多头将捍卫 10.8 万美元还是会进一步下跌？（转）
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比特币的价格如何？8 r# Y& f% @3 G: L4 ]
最新的比特币价格走势显示，突破布林带上轨的尝试失败，随后迅速跌至中线，并从盘中支撑位107,400美元附近短暂反弹。30分钟和4小时图显示，5月23日出现了一次显著的抛售K线，在比特币短暂测试111,000美元区域后，触发了看跌吞没形态。- _0 W" l9 c q3 G/ u9 ]
: c" Z! A1 f& n" |3 ]/ Q) ~2 c/ H$ E1 ?尽管自5月7日以来，4小时图上出现了强劲的上行通道，但此次下跌依然出现。目前，价格正在测试该上升通道的中线，这预示着多头的关键时刻。如果跌破该支撑位，我们可能会看到更深的回调，跌向105,900美元。" }% J( b5 z% i1 A4 E! j
8 @3 F/ i! i7 Q6 [/ `& C2 ^6 b' v% M9 Y技术分析：EMA、布林带、趋势线9 f; V" @, o! D
4小时图上，比特币价格已跌破20日均线（108,753美元），目前正在测试50日均线（106,934美元）的短期支撑位。该区域也与布林带中轨（109,405美元）重叠，后者近期已从支撑位转为阻力位，表明上方布林带存在压力。$ G( z) p' B! N! |* X& \
) v" i" z( j+ q0 C, o+ @' B5月7日以来的趋势线支撑位仍然完好，但面临威胁。如果价格跌破106,800美元，我们可能会看到价格跌向104,200美元，即100日均线所在位置。上行方面，近期阻力位在110,000美元附近，随后是112,800美元，此前的供应区域曾阻止价格上涨。! \# A& i0 [* M# T, ~( ~
' S% m" ^& z6 o- e. b动量指标：RSI、MACD、Ichimoku、Stoch RSI! }4 [% z" b# e: ^ _( ]
动量工具开始反映看跌背离。30分钟RSI指标跌破45，且尚未出现明显反转迹象。与此同时，MACD柱状图已转为红色，信号线向下穿过MACD线，证实了价格图表上显示的疲软走势。
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较低时间框架下的一目均衡表显示，比特币交易价格低于转折线和基准线，且低于云层，表明短期趋势已耗尽。然而，前方云层仍然稀薄，这意味着即使多头重新获得力量，阻力也有限。
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! @: q+ C3 f; J* e: | A' o随机 RSI 在 30 分钟图上闪烁超买信号，在 80 关口附近出现看跌交叉，警告如果成交量未能确认，任何反弹都可能立即遭到拒绝。
$ h A! {( B5 y3 i& P$ U9 [4 `8 W0 x' d; l) ]
短期展望及预测表* c1 F4 @& Y- k& E% P4 O
比特币价格的走势在很大程度上取决于价格对106,900美元至107,300美元需求区间的反应。如果多头能够有力地守住该区间，反弹可能会重新瞄准109,800美元和111,000美元。如果未能守住该区间，则可能跌向104,000美元至105,000美元区间。* ?* z! ?" f- b. f
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