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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
6 ?6 d" w1 E/ V: d& Z* k尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。1 ?7 i1 L3 v6 R$ G6 ?, X
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。! G7 h: b0 `7 `) J' M7 p
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其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。* r9 c( X# ]% K1 u& j4 ^, a
4 e& ]* |- h8 N' u0 _- R* oAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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6 ?3 u. U0 e5 a) \+ {7 A' w“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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6 N+ O& ^# e5 V7 g* u. E平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。+ I0 L+ u: E7 g' B8 l3 p
: A) c! l, r+ \+ h3 B I因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
- O6 B. o9 M( [7 g8 Z9 Y, E9 |( b e: K9 R1 j. E
BTC 图表暗示了什么& m+ X9 r) A& b' u
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。. b+ B& \5 }' `
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。- w1 y2 n1 J6 A: B+ J& p0 |, c
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。5 Y( J+ t) a1 F
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比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
# g2 T8 S9 c2 h9 g( s& ~( i O4 {0 T5 b3 J) ]! @- P4 c
当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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# m( b& P8 z# G5 g* u5 h$ B& w最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。( y7 A* D$ _5 M
$ `, U1 p$ N/ n最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
4 V* h: E3 w: R4 r2 x2 i8 `* Z) J a! M+ _# }+ N" L' H. |4 ?
截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。# q) ]$ h" ], y8 G
0 W5 ~) \! v: e- s* U简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。 g/ K( Z; g' `: ~- @8 k% J0 c
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