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[lastpost] => 2658061 为什么山寨币跌这么多?还会持续多久?(转) 1718778422 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
市场预期“宽松之夏” 比特币创两个月最佳单日表现(转)
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周三,比特币(BTC)上涨超过7.5%,创下自3月20日以来的最佳表现。
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疲软的美国经济数据增强了美联储在9月降息的可能性。
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/ t3 P& g* G. j4 B% V+ U+ G英国央行和欧洲央行可能会在6月降息。
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0 ~$ Q% c+ t3 K8 }/ ?由于美国经济数据疲软,提高了美联储(Fed)在夏季降息的概率,比特币周三创下近两个月来的最大单日涨幅。根据TradingView和CoinDesk的数据,这一市值最大的加密货币上涨超过7.5%,达到66,250美元,这是自3月20日以来的最大百分比涨幅。像其他风险资产一样,比特币对主要央行货币政策立场的预期变化非常敏感,当预期法定货币借贷成本下降时,比特币往往会上涨。% w) L, M `3 h: Q" [. y
; P+ V; E7 b- t& f- M, p: i美国劳工部周三发布的数据表明,4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)涨幅低于预期,显示出全球最大经济体的生活成本再次下滑。总体CPI上月上涨0.3%,而3月和2月的涨幅为0.4%。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI在4月份上涨了0.3%,3月份的涨幅为0.4%。
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# ~. H% x7 L+ z" N7 b! w+ G. V其他数据显示,4月份整体零售销售增长停滞,“控制组”类别的销售额(该类别数据纳入GDP计算)环比下降了0.3%。
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8 u% X8 Z7 u/ T+ \8 C: X因此,降息预期显著转变。联邦基金期货显示,交易员预计美联储将在9月进行首次25个基点的降息。(今年夏天将于6月20日开始,9月22日结束。)美联储最近表示,将从6月开始减少量化紧缩的步伐,这也是一种收紧流动性的工具。+ m. g% D& F0 ^3 C- h
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不仅是美联储,市场预计英格兰银行和欧洲央行将在6月降息。瑞士国家银行(SNB)和瑞典央行(Riksbank)已经降低了基准借贷成本。2 h2 e, _/ N. B" \' y4 J/ t
: ^' b% w2 W8 a8 A1 @0 K全球央行正在转向新的货币或流动性宽松政策,这对于包括加密货币在内的风险资产是一个积极信号,从数据追踪网站MacroMicro的图表中可以明显看出这一点。
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最近一次加息的全球央行的比例正在迅速下降,而最近一次降息的央行比例在上升。换句话说,净降息央行的比例在上升。: w" o$ |" g* w5 _
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MacroMicro在解释中指出:“比例越高,说明更多的央行在降息,这有助于改善市场流动性。比例越低,市场流动性越少。”
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3 _2 x- H d2 z+ O% k- {0 k# V经纪公司Pepperstone表示,夏季流动性宽松的前景应该会支持股票市场,给投资者足够的信心“继续在风险曲线上前行”。0 g \) A. T9 F
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